Hasashen farashin Lithium: Shin farashin zai kiyaye bijimin sa?.
Farashin lithium mai darajar baturi ya sami sauƙi a cikin makonnin da suka gabata duk da ƙarancin wadata da kuma ƙaƙƙarfan siyar da motocin lantarki a duniya.
Farashin lithium hydroxide na mako-mako (mafi ƙarancin 56.5% LiOH2O baturi) ya kai dala 75,000 kowace tonne ($ 75 a kilogiram) akan farashi, inshora da jigilar kaya (CIF) akan 7 ga Yuli, ƙasa daga $81,500 akan 7 ga Mayu, a cewar London Metal Musanya (LME) da hukumar rahoton farashin Fastmarkets.
Farashin carbonate na Lithium a China ya koma CNY475,500/ton ($70,905.61) a karshen watan Yuni, daga wani rikodin da ya kai CNY500,000 a watan Maris, a cewar mai ba da bayanan tattalin arziki Trading Economics.
Koyaya, farashin lithium carbonate da lithium hydroxide - albarkatun kasa don kera batirin abin hawa lantarki (EV) - har yanzu sun ninka daga farashin a farkon Janairu.
Shin ɓacin rai na ɗan lokaci ne kawai?A cikin wannan labarin muna bincika sabbin labarai na kasuwa da bayanan buƙatun samarwa waɗanda ke tsara hasashen farashin lithium.
Bayanin kasuwar lithium
Lithium ba shi da kasuwar gaba saboda ƙanƙara ce ta ƙarafa ta fuskar ciniki.Koyaya, kasuwar abubuwan da aka samo asali CME Group yana da makomar lithium hydroxide, waɗanda ke amfani da ƙimar ƙimar lithium hydroxide da Fastmarkets suka buga.
A cikin 2019, LME tare da haɗin gwiwa tare da Fastmarkets sun ƙaddamar da farashin tunani dangane da ma'aunin kasuwancin tabo na mako-mako akan tushen CIF China, Japan da Koriya.
China, Japan da Koriya sune manyan kasuwanni uku mafi girma na lithium na teku.Farashin tabo na lithium a waɗannan ƙasashe ana ɗaukar ma'auni na masana'antu don darajar lithium na baturi.
Dangane da bayanan tarihi, farashin lithium ya faɗi tsakanin 2018 zuwa 2020 saboda samar da glut a matsayin masu hakar ma'adinai, irin su Pilbara Minerals da Altura Mining, haɓaka samarwa.
Farashin lithium hydroxide ya ragu zuwa $9 kilogiram a ranar 30 ga Disamba 2020, daga $20.5/kg a ranar 4 ga Janairu 2018. Ana siyan lithium carbonate akan $6.75/kg akan 30 Disamba 2020, ƙasa daga $19.25 akan 4 Janairu 2018.
Farashi ya fara hauhawa a farkon 2021 saboda ingantaccen ci gaban EV yayin da tattalin arzikin duniya ya sake farfadowa daga tasirin cutar ta Covid-19.Farashin carbonate na lithium ya tashi sau tara zuwa yau daga $6.75/kg a farkon Janairu 2021, yayin da lithium hydroxide ya karu fiye da ninki bakwai daga $9.
A cikinGlobal EV Outlook 2022wanda aka buga a watan Mayu, Hukumar Makamashi ta Duniya (IEA)
Rahoton tallace-tallace na EVs ya ninka sau biyu a cikin 2021 daga shekarar da ta gabata zuwa sabon rikodin raka'a 6.6m.Adadin motocin lantarki da ke kan titunan a duniya ya kai miliyan 16.5, wanda ya ninka adadin a shekarar 2018.
A cikin kwata na farko na wannan shekara, an sayar da motocin EV miliyan 2, wanda ya karu da kashi 75% na shekara-shekara (YOY).
Koyaya, farashin tabo na lithium carbonate a cikin kasuwar Asiya-Pacific ya sauƙaƙa a cikin kwata na biyu yayin da sabon barkewar Covid-19 a China, wanda ya sa gwamnati ta sanya dokar hana fita, ta shafi sarkar samar da albarkatun ƙasa.
Dangane da kasuwar sinadarai da bayanan farashi, Chemanlyst, an kiyasta farashin lithium carbonate akan $72,155/ton ko $72.15/kg a cikin kwata na biyu ya ƙare Yuni 2022, ƙasa daga $74,750/ton a cikin kwata na farko ya ƙare a watan Maris.
Kamfanin ya rubuta:
Wuraren Motocin Wutar Lantarki da yawa sun rage kayan aikin su, kuma shafuka da yawa sun dakatar da samar da su saboda rashin isassun kayan masarufi na motoci.
"Ci gaban gaba ɗaya sakamakon COVID, tare da binciken hukumomin China game da hauhawar farashin Lithium, yana ƙalubalantar ci gaba mai dorewa ga tattalin arziƙin ƙasa."
Farashin lithium hydroxide a cikin Asiya-Pacific, duk da haka, ya tashi $73,190/ton a cikin kwata na biyu, daga $68,900/ton a kwata na farko, in ji Chemanlyst.
Duban buƙatun samarwa yana ba da shawarar kasuwa mai ƙarfi
A watan Maris, gwamnatin Ostiraliya ta yi hasashen cewa buƙatar lithium a duniya zai iya tashi zuwa tan 636,000 na lithium carbonate daidai (LCE) a cikin 2022, daga tan 526,000 a 2021. Ana sa ran buƙatar fiye da ninki biyu zuwa tan miliyan 1.5 nan da 2027 a matsayin ɗaukacin duniya. yaci gaba da tashi.
An kiyasta fitowar lithium na duniya don ƙara dan kadan sama da buƙatu zuwa tan 650,000 LCE a cikin 2022 da tan miliyan 1.47 a cikin 2027.
Ƙaruwar fitowar lithium, duk da haka, ƙila ba zai iya cim ma buƙatun masu kera batir ba.
Kamfanin bincike Wood Mackenzie yayi hasashen a cikin Maris cewa ƙarfin baturin lithium-ion na duniya zai iya tashi sama da ninki biyar zuwa 5,500 gigawatt-hour (GWh) nan da 2030 daga 2021 don amsa manyan tsare-tsaren fadada EV.
Jiayue Zheng, manazarta Wood Mackenzie, sun ce:
"Kasuwancin abin hawa na lantarki (EV) ya kai kusan kashi 80% na buƙatun batirin lithium-ion."
"Farashin mai yana tallafawa ƙarin kasuwanni don fitar da manufofin sufuri na sifiri, yana haifar da buƙatar batirin lithium-ion ya hauhawa kuma ya wuce 3,000 GWh nan da 2030."
“Kasuwar batir lithium-ion ta riga ta gamu da rashi a bara saboda bunƙasa buƙatun kasuwar EV da hauhawar farashin albarkatun ƙasa.A karkashin yanayin yanayin mu, muna aiwatar da cewa samar da batir ba zai biya bukata ba har sai 2023."
“Kasuwar batir lithium-ion ta riga ta gamu da rashi a bara saboda bunƙasa buƙatun kasuwar EV da hauhawar farashin albarkatun ƙasa.A karkashin yanayin yanayin mu, muna aiwatar da cewa samar da batir ba zai biya bukata ba har sai 2023."
"Mun yi imanin cewa wannan mayar da hankali kan lithium ya fi yawa saboda ɓangaren ma'adinai na lithium da ba a haɓaka ba idan aka kwatanta da nickel," in ji kamfanin a cikin binciken.
"Mun kiyasta cewa EVs za su dauki nauyin sama da 80.0% na buƙatun lithium na duniya nan da 2030 idan aka kwatanta da kawai 19.3% na samar da nickel na duniya a 2030."
Hasashen farashin Lithium: Hasashen masu sharhi
Fitch Solutions a cikin hasashen farashin lithium na 2022 kiyasin farashin lithium carbonate na batir a China zuwa matsakaicin dala 21,000 a kowace ton a wannan shekara, yana sauƙaƙe zuwa matsakaicin $19,000 akan kowace ton a 2023.
Nicholas Trickett, Masanin ƙarfe da ma'adinai a Fitch Solutions ya rubuta wa Capital.com, ya ce:
"Har yanzu muna sa ran samun saukin farashi cikin sharuddan dangi a shekara mai zuwa yayin da sabbin ma'adanai suka fara hakowa a cikin 2022 da 2023, tsayin daka mai tsayi yana lalata wasu buƙatu yayin da masu siye ke siyan motoci masu amfani da wutar lantarki (babban direban buƙatun buƙatun), da ƙarin masu siye. rufe yarjejeniya ta dogon lokaci tare da masu hakar ma'adinai."
Kamfanin yana kan aiwatar da sabunta hasashen farashin lithium idan aka yi la'akari da farashin da ake samu a yanzu da kuma canje-canje a yanayin tattalin arziki, in ji Trickett.
Fitch Solutions yayi hasashen samar da carbonate na lithium na duniya zai karu da 219kilotonnes (kt) tsakanin 2022 da 2023 da wani karuwa na 194.4 kt tsakanin 2023 da 2024, in ji Trickett.
A cikin hasashen farashin lithium na 2022 daga mai ba da bayanan tattalin arziki Kasuwancin Tattalin Arziki ana tsammanin lithium carbonate a China zai yi ciniki a CNY482,204.55/ton a ƙarshen Q3 2022 da CNY502,888.80 a cikin watanni 12.
Saboda rashin daidaituwa da rashin tabbas akan wadata da buƙatu, manazarta za su iya samar da hasashen ɗan gajeren lokaci ne kawai.Ba su samar da hasashen farashin lithium na 2025 ko hasashen farashin lithium na 2030 ba.
Lokacin dubawalithiumHasashen farashin, ku tuna cewa hasashen manazarta na iya zama kuma sun yi kuskure.Idan kuna son saka hannun jari a cikin lithium, yakamata kuyi naku binciken tukuna.
Shawarar jarin ku ya kamata ta dogara ne akan halayenku na haɗari, ƙwarewar ku a cikin wannan kasuwa, yaduwar fayil ɗin ku da kuma yadda kuke jin daɗin rasa kuɗi.Kuma kada ku zuba jari fiye da yadda za ku iya rasa.
Lokacin aikawa: Satumba-17-2022