A sakawa da kasuwanci model namakamashi ajiyaa cikin tsarin wutar lantarki yana ƙara bayyana.A halin yanzu, an kafa tsarin ci gaban da ya dace da kasuwa na ajiyar makamashi a yankuna da suka ci gaba kamar Amurka da Turai.Gyaran tsarin wutar lantarki a kasuwanni masu tasowa shima yana kara habaka.Babban ci gaban masana'antar ajiyar makamashi Yanayin ya cika, kuma masana'antar ajiyar makamashi ta duniya za ta fashe a cikin 2023.
Turai: Ƙarƙashin ƙimar shiga, babban ƙarfin girma, da ajiyar makamashi ya kai sabon matsayi
Karkashin matsalar makamashi ta Turai, kasuwa ta amince da ingancin tattalin arziki mai girma na ajiyar hasken rana na gida, kuma buƙatun ajiyar hasken rana ya fara fashewa.Tsarin kwangilar farashin wutar lantarki na wurin zama.A shekarar 2023, farashin wutar lantarki na sabbin kwangilolin da aka sanya wa hannu zai tashi sosai.Matsakaicin farashin wutar lantarki zai kasance sama da Yuro 40/MWh, ƙaruwar 80-120% duk shekara.Ana sa ran ci gaba da kula da farashi mai girma a cikin shekaru 1-2 masu zuwa, kuma tsananin bukatar ajiyar hasken rana ya bayyana.
Jamus ta keɓance VAT na hoto na gida da harajin kuɗin shiga, kuma an janye manufar tallafin ceton gida na Italiya.Hanyar da ta dace ta ci gaba.Adadin ajiyar gida na Jamus na dawowa zai iya kaiwa 18.3%.Idan akai la'akari da lokacin biyan tallafin za a iya rage shi zuwa shekaru 7-8.Tsarin makamashi mai zaman kansa na dogon lokaci, yawan shigar da kayan ajiyar gida a Turai a cikin 2021 shine kawai 1.3%, akwai babban ɗaki don haɓaka, kuma masana'antu, kasuwanci da manyan kasuwannin ajiya suma suna girma cikin sauri.
Mun kiyasta cewa buƙatar sabon ƙarfin ajiyar makamashi a Turai a cikin 2023/2025 zai zama 30GWh/104GWh, haɓakar 113% a 2023, da CAGR = 93.8% a cikin 2022-2025.
Amurka: Ƙarfafawa daga manufar ITC, barkewar annobar
Amurka ita ce babbar kasuwa mai girman gaske a duniya.A cikin 2022Q1-3, ikon da aka girka na ajiyar makamashi a Amurka shine 3.57GW/10.67GWh, karuwar shekara-shekara na 102%/93%.
Ya zuwa watan Nuwamba, karfin rajista ya kai 22.5GW.A cikin 2022, sabon ƙarfin da aka shigar na photovoltaics zai ragu, amma ajiyar makamashi zai ci gaba da ci gaba da sauri.A cikin 2023, ƙarfin shigar da hoto zai inganta, kuma adadin shigar da wutar lantarki mai ƙarfi zai ci gaba da ƙaruwa, yana tallafawa ci gaba da fashewar ƙarfin shigar da wutar lantarki.
Haɗin kai tsakanin masu samar da wutar lantarki a Amurka ba shi da kyau, ajiyar makamashi yana da ƙima mai amfani don ƙa'ida, sabis na tallafi gabaɗaya a buɗe suke, ƙimar kasuwancin yana da girma, kuma farashin wutar lantarki na PPA yana da girma kuma ƙimar ajiya a bayyane take.An ƙaddamar da kuɗin harajin ITC na shekaru 10 kuma an ƙara darajar bashi zuwa 30% -70%.A karo na farko, ajiyar makamashi mai zaman kanta yana kunshe a cikin tallafin, wanda ke inganta karuwa mai yawa a cikin adadin dawowa.
Mun kiyasta cewa buƙatar sabon ƙarfin ajiyar makamashi a Amurka a cikin 2023/2025 zai zama 36/111GWh bi da bi, haɓakar shekara-shekara na 117% a 2023, da CAGR = 88.5% a cikin 2022-2025.
Kasar Sin: Bukatar manufofin kiba na karuwa cikin sauri, kuma kasuwar yuan biliyan 100 ta fara bulla.
Rarraba wajaba na cikin gida na ajiya yana ba da garantin haɓakar ajiyar makamashi.A cikin 2022Q1-3, ƙarfin da aka shigar shine 0.93GW / 1.91GWh, kuma adadin babban ajiya a cikin tsarin ya wuce 93%.Dangane da cikakken kididdigar, tayin jama'a na ajiyar makamashi a cikin 2022 zai kai 41.6GWh.Samfurin ajiyar makamashin da aka raba yana yaduwa cikin sauri, kuma ana aiwatar da diyya na iya aiki, kasuwar tabo da wutar lantarki, da tsarin bambancin farashin lokaci don haɓaka ƙimar ajiyar makamashi.
Mun kiyasta cewa buƙatun sabon ƙarfin ajiyar makamashi na cikin gida a cikin 2023/2025 zai zama 33/118GWh bi da bi, haɓakar shekara-shekara na 205% a 2023, da CAGR = 122.2% a cikin 2022-2025.
Sabbin fasahohi irin su batir sodium-ion, batir masu kwarara ruwa, ajiyar makamashi na photothermal, da ajiyar makamashi na nauyi ana aiwatar da su kuma sannu a hankali ana tabbatar da su a ƙarshen farashin.Ƙarfafa sarrafa amincin ma'ajiyar makamashi, kuma a hankali ƙara yawan kutsawa na kascade mai matsa lamba, tsarin sanyaya ruwa, da Fakitin kariyar wuta.An bambanta jigilar batir ajiyar makamashi a fili, kuma kamfanonin inverter suna da fa'ida wajen shigar da PCS.
Idan aka kwatanta da: manyan kasuwanni uku a China, Amurka da Turai sun fashe
Godiya ga barkewar manyan ma'ajiyar kayayyaki tsakanin Sin da Amurka da kuma ajiyar gida na Turai, muna hasashen cewa bukatar karfin ajiyar makamashi na duniya zai kai 120/402GWh a shekarar 2023/2025, karuwar da kashi 134% a shekarar 2023, da CAGR na 98.8% a shekarar 2022. -2025.
A bangaren samar da kayayyaki, sabbin masu shiga cikin masana'antar ajiyar makamashi sun fito, kuma tashoshi sune sarki.Tsarin sel baturi yana da ɗan taƙaitawa.CATL tana matsayi na farko a cikin duniya dangane da jigilar kayayyaki, kuma jigilar kayayyaki na BYD EVE Pine Energy sun ci gaba da haɓaka cikin sauri;Inverters ajiyar makamashi suna mayar da hankali kan tashoshi da sabis na alama, kuma ƙaddamar da tsarin ya karu.Ikon Sunshine IGBT na ba da garantin wadata yana da ƙarfi a cikin Babban Kasuwar ajiya tana da ƙarfi a kan jagora, masu jujjuyawar ajiyar gida suna jin daɗin ƙimar girma mai girma, kuma jigilar jagororin ajiya na gida sun ƙaru sau da yawa a jere.
A karkashin ingantacciyar canjin makamashi, rage farashin tashoshi na wutar lantarki na kasa zai haifar da kololuwar shigarwa a cikin 2023, wanda zai hanzarta barkewar babban ajiya a China da Amurka;Ma'ajiyar gida za ta fashe a Turai a cikin 2022, kuma za ta ci gaba da ninkawa a cikin 2023. Ma'ajiyar gidaje a yankuna masu tasowa kamar Amurka da kudu maso gabashin Asiya Har ila yau, za ta zama yanayin al'ada, kuma ajiyar makamashi zai haifar da lokacin zinariya na ci gaba.
Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-05-2023