Kum'mawa kwa Asia nthawi zonse kunali likulu la mphamvu yokoka popanga mabatire a lithiamu-ion, koma mkati mwa East Asia likulu la mphamvu yokoka lidalowera ku China koyambirira kwa zaka za m'ma 2000.Masiku ano, makampani aku China ali ndi maudindo ofunikira pamtundu wapadziko lonse lapansi wa lithiamu, kumtunda ndi pansi, kuyimira pafupifupi 80% yamagetsi opanga ma cell a batri kuyambira 2021.1. , ndipo tsopano mu 2020 kusintha kwapadziko lonse ku magalimoto amagetsi (EVs) akuyika mphepo mumayendedwe a mabatire a lithiamu-ion.Kumvetsetsa makampani a lifiyamu aku China ndikofunikira kuti timvetsetse zomwe zikuthandizira kuyambika komwe kukubwera pakutengera EV.
Center of Gravity Inasunthira Kulowera ku China
Kupambana kwapadera kwa Nobel Prize kunayambitsa malonda a mabatire a lithiamu, makamaka ndi Stanley Whittingham m'ma 1970 ndi John Goodenough mu 1980. Ngakhale kuti zoyesayesazi sizinali zopambana, zidayambitsa kufunikira kofunikira kwa Dr. Akira Yoshino mu 1985, yomwe adapanga mabatire a lithiamu-ion kukhala otetezeka komanso kuchita malonda.Kuyambira pamenepo, Japan anali ndi mwendo-mmwamba mu mpikisano oyambirira kugulitsa lithiamu mabatire ndi kuwuka kwa South Korea anapanga East Asia pakati pa makampani.
Pofika chaka cha 2015, China idaposa onse aku South Korea ndi Japan kuti ikhale yogulitsa kunja mabatire a lithiamu-ion.Kumbuyo kwa kukwera uku kunali kuphatikizika kwa zoyeserera zamalamulo komanso kuchita bizinesi molimba mtima.Makampani awiri ang'onoang'ono, BYD ndi Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL), adakhala otsogola ndipo tsopano akupanga pafupifupi 70% ya kuchuluka kwa batire ku China.2
Mu 1999, injiniya wina dzina lake Robin Zeng adathandizira kupeza Amperex Technology Limited (ATL), yomwe turbo idakulitsa kukula kwake mu 2003 popangana ndi Apple kuti apange mabatire a iPod.Mu 2011, batire ya EV ya ATL idasinthidwa kukhala Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL).Mu theka loyamba la 2022, CATL idatenga 34.8% ya msika wapadziko lonse wa batri wa EV.3
Mu 1995, katswiri wa zamankhwala dzina lake Wang Chuanfu adapita kumwera ku Shenzhen, kukakhazikitsa BYD.Kupambana koyambirira kwa BYD mumakampani a lithiamu kunabwera kuchokera ku mabatire opanga mafoni am'manja ndi zamagetsi ogula ndi BYD kugula zinthu zokhazikika kuchokera ku Beijing Jeep Corporation kudayamba ulendo wake m'malo agalimoto.Mu 2007, kupita patsogolo kwa BYD kudakopa chidwi cha Berkshire Hathaway.Pofika kumapeto kwa theka loyamba la 2022, BYD idaposa Tesla pa malonda a EV padziko lonse lapansi, ngakhale imabwera ndi chenjezo loti BYD imagulitsa ma EV oyera komanso osakanizidwa, pomwe Tesla amayang'ana kwambiri ma EV.4
Kukwera kwa CATL ndi BYD kudathandizidwa ndi chithandizo cha mfundo.Mu 2004, mabatire lifiyamu poyamba analowa ndondomeko ya opanga ndondomeko Chinese, ndi "Ndemanga Kukulitsa Makampani Magalimoto," ndipo kenako mu 2009 ndi 2010 ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwa subsidies kwa mabatire ndi kulipiritsa malo kwa EVs.5 M'chaka cha 2010, dongosolo dongosolo. a subsidies anapereka $10,000 kwa $20,000 kwa magalimoto magetsi ndipo zinangopezeka kwa makampani kusonkhanitsa magalimoto ku China ndi mabatire lithiamu-ion kuchokera ovomerezeka sapulaya Chinese.6 Mwachidule, ngakhale opanga batire akunja analoledwa kupikisana mu msika Chinese, subsidies anapanga. Opanga mabatire aku China ndiye chisankho chokongola kwambiri.
Kutengedwa kwa EV ku China Kwayendetsa Kufunika kwa Lithium
Utsogoleri wa China pakutengera EV ndi chimodzi mwa zifukwa zomwe kufunikira kwa mabatire a lithiamu padziko lonse lapansi kukukulirakulira.Pofika chaka cha 2021, 13% yamagalimoto ogulitsidwa ku China anali ma hybrid kapena ma EV oyera ndipo chiwerengerochi chikuyembekezeka kukwera.Kukula kwa CATL ndi BYD kukhala zimphona zapadziko lonse lapansi mkati mwazaka makumi awiri zikuphatikiza mphamvu ya ma EVs ku China.
Pamene ma EV akuchulukirachulukira, kufunikira kukuchoka kuchoka ku mabatire opangidwa ndi faifi tambala kubwerera ku mabatire a iron-based (LFPs), omwe poyamba adasiya kukondedwa chifukwa chokhala ndi mphamvu zocheperako (motero zimakhala zotsika).Zabwino ku China, 90% ya LFP yopanga ma cell padziko lonse lapansi imachokera ku China.7 Njira yosinthira kuchoka ku nickel kupita ku LFP sizovuta, kotero China mwachibadwa idzataya gawo lake mu malowa, koma China ikuwonekerabe. okonzeka kukhala ndi udindo waukulu mu LFP malo amtsogolo.
M'zaka zaposachedwa, BYD yakhala ikukankhira kutsogolo ndi LFP Blade Battery, yomwe imakweza kwambiri chitetezo cha batri.Ndi dongosolo latsopano batire paketi kuti optimizes ntchito danga, BYD anasonyeza kuti Blade Battery osati anapambana msomali kulowa msomali mayeso, koma pamwamba kutentha anakhalabe ozizira mokwanira komanso. magalimoto, opanga magalimoto akuluakulu monga Toyota ndi Tesla akukonzekera kapena akugwiritsa ntchito Blade Battery, ngakhale ndi Tesla kusatsimikizika kwina kumakhalabe pa kuchuluka.9,10,11
Pakadali pano, mu Juni 2022 CATL idakhazikitsa batire yake ya Qilin.Mosiyana ndi Battery Blade yomwe ikufuna kusintha miyezo ya chitetezo, batri ya Qilin imadzisiyanitsa kwambiri ndi kuchuluka kwa mphamvu ndi nthawi yolipiritsa. zomwe zikuwonetsa kukula kwakukulu kwaukadaulo kuseri kwa mabatire awa.13,14
Makampani aku China Safe Strategic Position mu Global Supply Chain
Ngakhale ntchito ya CATL ndi BYD mu malo a EV ndiyofunikira, kupezeka kwakukulu kwa China m'magawo akumtunda sikuyenera kunyalanyazidwa.Gawo la mkango la kupanga lithiamu yaiwisi limachitika ku Australia ndi Chile, zomwe zili ndi gawo lapadziko lonse la 55% ndi 26%.Kumtunda kwa mtsinje, China imangotenga 14% ya kupanga lithiamu padziko lonse.15 Ngakhale izi, makampani a ku China adakhazikitsa kupezeka kwamtunda m'zaka zaposachedwa kupyolera mu kugula kwa migodi m'migodi padziko lonse lapansi.
Ntchito yogula zinthu ikuchitidwa ndi opanga mabatire ndi ochita migodi.Zitsanzo zodziwika bwino mu 2021 zikuphatikiza Zijin Mining Group yomwe idagula Tres Quebradas $765mn ndi CATL yogula $298mn ya Cauchari East ndi Pastos Grandes, onse ku Argentina. ku Argentina pamtengo wamtengo wapatali mpaka $ 962mn.17 Mwachidule, lithiamu ndi chinthu chofunikira kwambiri pakusintha kobiriwira komanso makampani aku China akulolera kuyikapo ndalama mu lithiamu kuti atsimikizire kuti sakusiya.
Kusungirako Mphamvu Kumawonetsa Kuthekera Pakati pa Zovuta Zachilengedwe
Kudzipereka kwa China kuti apeze mpweya wochuluka kwambiri pofika chaka cha 2030 komanso kusalowerera ndale kwa carbon pofika 2060 ndi zina zomwe zikuyambitsa kufunikira kwa EV.Chinthu chinanso chofunikira pakuchita bwino kwa zolinga zongowonjezwdwa za China ndikutengera ukadaulo wosungira mphamvu.Kusungirako mphamvu kumayendera limodzi ndi mapulojekiti amagetsi ongowonjezwdwanso ndichifukwa chake boma la China tsopano likulamula 5-20% yosungirako mphamvu kuti ipite ndi ntchito zongowonjezera mphamvu.Kusungirako ndikofunikira kuti muchepetse kuchepa, ndiko kuti, kuchepetsa mwadala mphamvu zamagetsi chifukwa chosowa kufunikira kapena zovuta zotumizira, pang'ono.
Pumped hydro storage panopa ndi gwero lalikulu la mphamvu yosungirako mphamvu ndi 30.3 GW kuyambira 2020, komabe pafupifupi 89% ya non-hydro storage ndi mabatire a lithiamu-ion.18,19 mabatire ndi oyenera kusungirako kwakanthawi kochepa, komwe ndi kofunikira pakuwonjezeranso.
China pakadali pano ili ndi 3.3GW yokha ya mphamvu yosungira mphamvu ya batri koma ili ndi mapulani okulitsa kwambiri.Mapulani awa akufotokozedwa mwatsatanetsatane mu 14th Five-year Plan for Energy Storage yomwe idatulutsidwa mu Marichi 2022.20 Chimodzi mwazolinga zazikulu za dongosololi ndikuchepetsa mtengo wagawo losungira mphamvu ndi 30% pofika 2025, zomwe zidzalola kusungirako. kukhala chisankho chabwino pazachuma.21 Komanso, pansi pa ndondomekoyi, State Grid ikuyembekeza kuwonjezera 100GW mu mphamvu yosungirako batire pofika chaka cha 2030 kuti zithandizire kukula kwa zongowonjezera, zomwe zingapangitse zombo zosungiramo mabatire ku China kukhala zazikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, ngakhale pang'ono pang'ono. US yomwe ikuyembekezeka kukhala ndi 99GW.22
Mapeto
Makampani aku China asintha kale njira yapadziko lonse ya lithiamu, koma akupitiliza kupanga mwachangu.Monga umboni wofunikira pamakampani, kuyambira pa Aug 18, 2022, makampani aku China adapanga 41.2% ya Solactive Lithium Index, yomwe ndi index yomwe idapangidwa kuti iwonetse momwe makampani akulu kwambiri komanso amadzimadzi omwe akugwira ntchito pakufufuza ndi / kapena migodi ya lithiamu kapena kupanga mabatire a lithiamu.23 Padziko lonse, mitengo ya lithiamu yawonjezeka 13 pakati pa July 1, 2020 ndi July 1, 2022, mpaka $ 67,050 pa ton.24 Ku China, mtengo wa lithiamu carbonate pa tani unalumpha. kuchokera ku 105000 RMB mpaka 475500 RMB pakati pa Aug 20, 2021 ndi Aug 19, 2022, kusonyeza kuwonjezeka kwa 357%.25 Ndi mitengo ya lithiamu carbonate mmwamba kapena pafupi ndi mbiri yakale, makampani aku China ali ndi mwayi wopindula.
Izi pamitengo ya lifiyamu zathandiza masheya aku China ndi US okhudzana ndi mabatire ndi lithiamu kuposa momwe zimakhalira pamsika pakati pazovuta zamsika;pakati pa Aug 18, 2021 ndi Aug 18, 2022, MSCI China All Shares IMI Select Batteries Index idabweza 1.60% motsutsana ndi -22.28% ya MSCI China All Shares Index.26 M'malo mwake, mabatire aku China ndi zida za batri zidaposa masheya a lithiamu padziko lonse lapansi, monga MSCI China All Shares IMI Select Batteries Index inabweza 1.60% motsutsana ndi Solactive Global Lithium Index kutumiza kubwerera kwa -0.74% pa nthawi yomweyo.27
Tikukhulupirira kuti mitengo ya lifiyamu ikhalabe yokwezeka m'zaka zikubwerazi, kukhala ngati mphepo yamkuntho kwa opanga mabatire.Ndikuyembekezera, komabe,Kusintha kwaukadaulo wa batri la lithiamu kumatha kupanga ma EV kukhala otsika mtengo komanso ogwira ntchito bwino, zomwe zimatha kulimbikitsa kufunikira kwa lithiamu.Popeza kukopa kwa China mumayendedwe a lithiamu, tikuyembekeza kuti makampani aku China atenga gawo lalikulu pamakampani a lithiamu kwazaka zikubwerazi.
Nthawi yotumiza: Nov-05-2022