Zolosera zamtengo wa Lithium: Kodi mtengowo usunga ng'ombe yake?
Mitengo ya lithiamu ya batri yatsika m'masabata apitawa ngakhale kusowa kwazinthu komanso kugulitsa kwamphamvu kwa magalimoto amagetsi padziko lonse lapansi.
Mitengo ya mlungu ndi mlungu ya lithiamu hydroxide (osachepera 56.5% LiOH2O batire kalasi) pafupifupi $75,000 pa tani ($75 kilogalamu) mtengo, inshuwalansi ndi katundu (CIF) maziko pa 7 July, kutsika kuchokera $81,500 pa 7 May, malinga ndi London Zitsulo. Kusinthana (LME) ndi bungwe lopereka malipoti amitengo Fastmarkets.
Mitengo ya Lithium carbonate ku China idabwerera ku CNY475,500/tonne ($70,905.61) kumapeto kwa Juni, kuchokera pamtengo wokwera kwambiri wa CNY500,000 mu Marichi, malinga ndi wopereka ndalama zachuma Trading Economics.
Komabe, mitengo ya lithiamu carbonate ndi lithiamu hydroxide - zopangira zopangira mabatire agalimoto yamagetsi (EV) - ikadali yowirikiza pamitengo yoyambira Januware.
Kodi downtrend ndi vuto kwakanthawi?M'nkhaniyi tiwona nkhani zaposachedwa kwambiri zamsika ndi zomwe zimafunikira zomwe zimapanga zolosera zamitengo ya lithiamu.
Chidule cha msika wa Lithium
Lithium ilibe msika wam'tsogolo chifukwa ndi msika wawung'ono wachitsulo potengera kuchuluka kwa malonda.Komabe, malo amsika a CME Group ali ndi tsogolo la lithium hydroxide, lomwe limagwiritsa ntchito kuwunika kwamitengo ya lithiamu hydroxide lofalitsidwa ndi Fastmarkets.
Mu 2019, LME mothandizana ndi Fastmarkets idakhazikitsa mtengo wowerengera potengera index yamalonda yapa sabata pa CIF China, Japan ndi Korea.
China, Japan ndi Korea ndi misika itatu yayikulu kwambiri ya lithiamu yam'madzi.Mtengo wa lifiyamu m'maiko amenewo umatengedwa ngati benchmark ya batri ya lithiamu.
Malinga ndi mbiri yakale, mitengo ya lithiamu idatsika pakati pa 2018 mpaka 2020 chifukwa chopereka glut ngati ochita migodi, monga Pilbara Minerals ndi Altura Mining, kuchuluka kwa kupanga.
Mtengo wa lithiamu hydroxide watsika kufika pa $9 kilogalamu pa 30 December 2020, kuchokera pa $20.5/kg pa 4 January 2018. Lithium carbonate inagulitsidwa pa $6.75/kg pa 30 December 2020, kutsika kuchokera pa $19.25 pa 4 January 2018.
Mitengo idayamba kukwera koyambirira kwa 2021 chifukwa chakukula kwamphamvu kwa EV pomwe chuma chapadziko lonse lapansi chikukwera chifukwa cha mliri wa Covid-19.Mtengo wa lithiamu carbonate wakwera kasanu ndi zinayi kuchokera pa $ 6.75 / kg kumayambiriro kwa Januware 2021, pomwe lithiamu hydroxide yakwera kuwirikiza kasanu ndi kawiri kuchoka pa $ 9.
MuGlobal EV Outlook 2022lofalitsidwa mu Meyi, International Energy Agency (IEA)
malipoti a malonda a EV adachulukanso mu 2021 kuchokera chaka chatha kufika pa mbiri yatsopano ya mayunitsi 6.6m.Chiwerengero chonse cha magalimoto amagetsi m'misewu padziko lonse lapansi chafika 16.5m, kuwirikiza katatu kuposa kuchuluka kwa 2018.
M'gawo loyamba la chaka chino, magalimoto a EV 2 miliyoni adagulitsidwa, mpaka 75% pachaka (YOY).
Komabe, mitengo ya lithium carbonate pamsika wa Asia-Pacific idatsika mu kotala yachiwiri pomwe kubuka kwatsopano kwa Covid-19 ku China, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti boma liyimitse zitseko, zidakhudza njira zopangira zinthu.
Malingana ndi msika wamankhwala ndi nzeru zamtengo wapatali, Chemanalyst, mtengo wa lithiamu carbonate unayesedwa pa $ 72,155 / tonne kapena $ 72.15 / kg m'gawo lachiwiri lomwe linatha June 2022, kutsika kuchokera ku $ 74,750 / tonne m'gawo loyamba linatha mu March.
Kampaniyo inalemba kuti:
Magalimoto angapo amagetsi adachepetsa kutulutsa kwawo, ndipo masamba ambiri adayimitsa kupanga kwawo chifukwa chosowa zida zamagalimoto zofunika.
"Chitukuko chonse chifukwa cha COVID, komanso kafukufuku wa akuluakulu aku China pakukwera kwamitengo ya Lithium, zikutsutsa kusintha kokhazikika kwachuma chobiriwira," adatero.
Mtengo wa lithiamu hydroxide ku Asia-Pacific, komabe, unakwera $ 73,190 / tonne m'gawo lachiwiri, kuchokera ku $ 68,900 / tonne m'gawo loyamba, adatero Chemanalyst.
Mawonekedwe ofunikira akuwonetsa kuti msika wocheperako
M'mwezi wa Marichi, boma la Australia linaneneratu kuti kufunikira kwa lithiamu padziko lonse lapansi kuyenera kukwera mpaka matani 636,000 a lithiamu carbonate ofanana (LCE) mu 2022, kuchokera ku matani 526,000 mu 2021. akupitiriza kukwera.
Anayerekeza kutulutsa kwa lithiamu padziko lonse lapansi kuti kuchuluke pang'ono kuposa kufunikira kwa matani 650,000 a LCE mu 2022 ndi matani 1.47 miliyoni mu 2027.
Kuwonjezeka kwa lifiyamu kutulutsa, komabe, sikungathe kukwaniritsa zofunikira kuchokera kwa opanga mabatire.
Kampani yofufuza ya Wood Mackenzie idaneneratu mu Marichi kuti kuchuluka kwa batire ya lithiamu-ion padziko lonse lapansi kumatha kukwera kuwirikiza kasanu mpaka 5,500 gigawatt-ola (GWh) pofika 2030 kuyambira 2021 kuti ayankhe mapulani akulu akulu a EV.
Jiayue Zheng, Ofufuza a Wood Mackenzie, adati:
"Msika wamagalimoto amagetsi (EV) umatenga pafupifupi 80% ya mabatire a lithiamu-ion."
"Mitengo yokwera yamafuta ikuthandizira misika yambiri kuti ikhazikitse ndondomeko zamayendedwe otulutsa mpweya, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti batire ya lithiamu-ion ichuluke ndikupitilira 3,000 GWh pofika 2030."
"Msika wa batri wa lithiamu-ion udakumana ndi kusowa chaka chatha chifukwa chakukula kwa msika wa EV komanso kukwera kwamitengo yazinthu.Pazigawo zathu zoyambira, tikuwonetsa kuti batire silingakwaniritse zofunikira mpaka 2023. ”
"Msika wa batri wa lithiamu-ion udakumana ndi kusowa chaka chatha chifukwa chakukula kwa msika wa EV komanso kukwera kwamitengo yazinthu.Pazigawo zathu zoyambira, tikuwonetsa kuti batire silingakwaniritse zofunikira mpaka 2023. ”
"Ife timakhulupirira kuti kuganizira lifiyamu makamaka chifukwa cha lifiyamu migodi gawo kukhala underdeveloped poyerekeza faifi tambala," olimba analemba mu kafukufuku.
"Tikuyerekeza kuti ma EVs adzakhala ndi udindo wopitilira 80.0% ya zofuna za lithiamu padziko lonse pofika 2030 poyerekeza ndi 19.3% yokha ya faifi tambala padziko lonse lapansi mu 2030."
Zoneneratu zamtengo wa Lithium: Zoneneratu za akatswiri
Fitch Solutions mu mtengo wake wa lifiyamu wa 2022 akuti mtengo wa lithiamu carbonate wa batri ku China ufika pafupifupi $ 21,000 pa tani chaka chino, kuchedwetsa pafupifupi $ 19,000 pa tani mu 2023.
Nicholas Trickett, katswiri wazitsulo ndi migodi ku Fitch Solutions adalembera Capital.com, anati:
"Tikuyembekezerabe kutsika kwa mitengo molingana ndi chaka chamawa pomwe migodi yatsopano iyamba kupanga mu 2022 ndi 2023, kukwera mitengo kwamitengo kumawononga kufunikira kwina chifukwa ogula akutsika mtengo chifukwa chogula magalimoto amagetsi (chiwongolero chachikulu chakukula kwa kufunikira), komanso ogula ambiri. kutseka mapangano a nthawi yayitali ndi ogwira ntchito ku migodi.”
olimba anali m'kati kasinthidwe zolosera mtengo lifiyamu anapatsidwa panopa mkulu mitengo ndi kusintha pa nkhani zachuma, Trickett anati.
Fitch Solutions idaneneratu kuti kupezeka kwa lithiamu carbonate padziko lonse kudzakwera ndi 219kilotonnes (kt) pakati pa 2022 ndi 2023 ndi kuwonjezeka kwina kwa 194.4 kt pakati pa 2023 ndi 2024, adatero Trickett.
Mu zolosera za mtengo wa lithiamu wa 2022 kuchokera kwa wopereka ndalama zachuma Trading Economics akuyembekezeka kuti lithiamu carbonate ku China idzagulitsa pa CNY482,204.55/tonni pofika kumapeto kwa Q3 2022 ndi CNY502,888.80 m'miyezi 12.
Chifukwa cha kusakhazikika komanso kusatsimikizika kwa kupezeka ndi kufunikira, akatswiri atha kupereka zolosera zanthawi yayitali.Sanapereke kulosera kwamitengo ya lithiamu kwa 2025 kapena kulosera kwamitengo ya lithiamu kwa 2030.
Poyang'ana mkatilithiamuzoneneratu zamtengo, kumbukirani kuti zolosera za akatswiri zitha kukhala zolakwika.Ngati mukufuna kuyikapo ndalama ku lithiamu, muyenera kuchita kafukufuku wanu kaye.
Lingaliro lanu lazachuma liyenera kutengera malingaliro anu pachiwopsezo, ukatswiri wanu pamsika uno, kufalikira kwa mbiri yanu komanso momwe mumamvera pakutaya ndalama.Ndipo musamawononge ndalama zambiri kuposa zomwe mungathe kutaya.
Nthawi yotumiza: Sep-17-2022