Umwanya hamwe nubucuruzi bwubucuruzi bwakubika ingufumuri sisitemu y'amashanyarazi iragenda igaragara neza.Kugeza ubu, hashyizweho uburyo bwo guteza imbere isoko ryo kubika ingufu mu turere twateye imbere nka Amerika n'Uburayi.Ivugurura rya sisitemu y’amashanyarazi ku masoko akura nayo irihuta.Iterambere rinini ry’inganda zibika ingufu Ibihe byeze, kandi inganda zibika ingufu ku isi zizaturika mu 2023.
Uburayi: Igipimo gito cyo kwinjira, ubushobozi bwo gukura cyane, no kubika ingufu bigeze ku rwego rushya
Mu gihe cy’ingutu z’ingufu z’Uburayi, isoko ry’ubukungu ryifashishije ingufu z’izuba ry’iburayi ryamenyekanye ku isoko, kandi icyifuzo cyo kubika izuba cyatangiye guturika.Uburyo bwo kugura ibiciro byamashanyarazi.Muri 2023, igiciro cyamashanyarazi cyamasezerano mashya azasinywa cyane.Ikigereranyo cy'amashanyarazi kizaba kirenze amayero 40 / MWh, kwiyongera 80-120% umwaka ushize.Biteganijwe ko uzakomeza kugumana ibiciro biri hejuru mumyaka 1-2 iri imbere, kandi icyifuzo gikomeye cyo kubika izuba kiragaragara.
Ubudage bwasoneye umusoro ku nyongeragaciro n’umusoro ku nyungu, kandi politiki y’inguzanyo yo kuzigama yo mu Butaliyani yakuweho.Politiki nziza irakomeje.Igipimo cy’amafaranga yo kuzigama mu Budage gishobora kugera kuri 18.3%.Urebye igihe cyo kwishyura gishobora kugabanywa kugeza ku myaka 7-8.Inzira ndende yigenga yingufu, umuvuduko winjira mububiko bwurugo muburayi mumwaka wa 2021 ni 1,3% gusa, hariho umwanya mugari wo gukura, kandi amasoko yinganda, ubucuruzi n’amasoko manini nayo aratera imbere byihuse.
Turagereranya ko ibyifuzo byubushobozi bushya bwo kubika ingufu muburayi muri 2023/2025 bizaba 30GWh / 104GWh, byiyongereyeho 113% muri 2023, na CAGR = 93.8% muri 2022-2025.
Amerika: Batewe inkunga na politiki ya ITC, hatangiye
Amerika nisoko rinini cyane ryo kubika ku isi.Muri 2022Q1-3, ubushobozi bwashyizweho bwo kubika ingufu muri Amerika bwari 3.57GW / 10.67GWh, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 102% / 93%.
Kuva mu Gushyingo, ubushobozi bwiyandikishije bugeze kuri 22.5GW.Muri 2022, ubushobozi bushya bwashyizweho bwa Photovoltaque buzagenda buhoro, ariko kubika ingufu bizakomeza gukura byihuse.Muri 2023, ubushobozi bwa fotokoltaque bwashyizweho buzatera imbere, kandi igipimo cyo kwinjira mububiko bw’ingufu zirenze urugero kizakomeza kwiyongera, gishyigikira gukomeza guturika kwububiko bw’ingufu zashyizweho.
Guhuza hagati yabatanga amashanyarazi muri Reta zunzubumwe zamerika birakennye, kubika ingufu bifite agaciro gafatika mugutegeka, serivisi zinyongera zirakinguye rwose, urwego rwisoko ruri hejuru, kandi igiciro cyamashanyarazi ya PPA kiri hejuru kandi amafaranga yo kubika aragaragara.Inguzanyo yimisoro ya ITC yongerewe imyaka 10 naho igipimo cyinguzanyo cyongerewe kugera kuri 30% -70%.Ku nshuro yambere, kubika ingufu byigenga bishyirwa mu nkunga, iteza imbere kwiyongera cyane ku gipimo cy’inyungu.
Turagereranya ko icyifuzo cy’ubushobozi bushya bwo kubika ingufu muri Amerika muri 2023/2025 kizaba 36 / 111GWh, buri mwaka kikaba cyiyongereyeho 117% muri 2023, na CAGR = 88.5% muri 2022-2025.
Ubushinwa: Isabwa rya politiki irenze urugero iriyongera cyane, kandi isoko rya miliyari 100 Yuan ritangiye kwigaragaza
Gutanga ububiko bwimbere mu gihugu byemeza ko ububiko bwiyongera.Muri 2022Q1-3, ubushobozi bwashyizweho ni 0.93GW / 1.91GWh, kandi igipimo cyububiko bunini mumiterere kirenga 93%.Dukurikije imibare yuzuye, amasoko rusange yo kubika ingufu mu 2022 azagera kuri 41.6GWh.Uburyo bwo kubika ingufu zisangiwe buragenda bukwirakwira vuba, kandi indishyi zubushobozi, isoko yumuriro wamashanyarazi, hamwe nuburyo bwo kugabana ibiciro byagabanijwe buhoro buhoro bishyirwa mubikorwa kugirango byongere ingufu zo kubika inyungu.
Turagereranya ko ibyifuzo byubushobozi bushya bwo kubika ingufu zimbere mu gihugu muri 2023/2025 bizaba 33 / 118GWh, buri mwaka kwiyongera 205% muri 2023, na CAGR = 122.2% muri 2022-2025.
Ikoranabuhanga rishya nka bateri ya sodium-ion, bateri zitemba zamazi, kubika ingufu za fototerique, hamwe nububiko bwingufu za rukuruzi zirimo gushyirwa mubikorwa kandi byemezwa buhoro buhoro amasoko arangiye.Shimangira imicungire yumutekano wo kubika ingufu, kandi wongere buhoro buhoro umuvuduko winjira wa casade yumuvuduko mwinshi, sisitemu yo gukonjesha amazi, hamwe no kurinda umuriro.Kohereza za bateri zibika ingufu ziratandukanye neza, kandi ibigo bya inverter bifite inyungu mukwinjira muri PCS.
Ufatiye hamwe: amasoko atatu akomeye mu Bushinwa, Amerika n'Uburayi yaturikiye
Bitewe n’ububiko bunini bw’Ubushinwa-Amerika hamwe n’ububiko bw’urugo rw’i Burayi, turateganya ko ingufu z’ububiko bw’ingufu ku isi zizaba 120 / 402GWh muri 2023/2025, iziyongera 134% muri 2023, na CAGR ya 98.8% muri 2022 -2025.
Ku ruhande rwo gutanga, hagaragaye abinjira bashya mu nganda zibika ingufu, kandi imiyoboro ni umwami.Imiterere ya selile ya selile irasa cyane.CATL iza ku mwanya wa mbere ku isi mu bijyanye no kohereza, kandi kohereza ingufu za BYD EVE Pine Energy byakomeje kwiyongera byihuse;imbaraga zo kubika ingufu zibanda kumiyoboro na serivisi zamamaza, kandi kwibanda kumiterere byariyongereye.Izuba Rirashe IGBT ifite ubushobozi bwo gutanga ibicuruzwa irakomeye mumasoko manini yo kubika arashyizwe imbere, abashinzwe kubika amazu bishimira umuvuduko mwinshi, kandi ibyoherezwa mubayobozi bashinzwe kubika amazu byiyongereye inshuro nyinshi zikurikiranye.
Ihinduka ry’ingufu ryihuse, kugabanya ibiciro by’amashanyarazi y’ubutaka bifotora bizatangira kugera ku ntera yo kwishyiriraho mu 2023, bizihutisha itangizwa ry’ububiko bunini mu Bushinwa no muri Amerika;ububiko bw'urugo buzaturika mu Burayi mu 2022, kandi buzakomeza gukuba kabiri mu 2023. Ububiko bw'ingo mu turere tugaragara nka Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika na Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya Nabwo bizahinduka inzira nyamukuru, kandi kubika ingufu bizatangiza igihe cyizahabu cy'iterambere.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mutarama-05-2023