Uqikelelo lwexabiso leLithium: Ngaba ixabiso liza kuyigcina inkunzi yalo iqhuba?
Amaxabiso e-lithium ebhetri-grade aye ancipha kwiiveki ezidlulileyo nangona kuqhubeka ukunqongophala kokubonelela kunye nokuthengiswa kwezithuthi zombane zehlabathi.
Amaxabiso eveki ye-lithium hydroxide (ubuncinci be-56.5% iBattery grade ye-LiOH2O) i-avareji ye-$ 75,000 ngetoni nganye (i-$ 75 ngekhilogram) iindleko, i-inshurensi kunye nempahla (CIF) isiseko se-7 kaJulayi, ihla ukusuka kwi-81,500 ye-$ 7 ngoMeyi, ngokutsho kweLondon Metal. Utshintshiselwano (LME) kunye ne-arhente yengxelo yexabiso Fastmarkets.
Amaxabiso e-Lithium carbonate e-China abuyele kwi-CNY475,500 / tonne (i-$ 70,905.61) ekupheleni kukaJuni, ukusuka kwirekhodi eliphezulu le-CNY500,000 ngo-Matshi, ngokutsho kwedatha yezoqoqosho umboneleli wezoQoqosho.
Nangona kunjalo, amaxabiso e-lithium carbonate kunye ne-lithium hydroxide - izinto eziluhlaza zokwenza iibhetri zemoto yombane (EV) - ziphindwe kabini ukusuka kumaxabiso ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari.
Ngaba i-downtrend yi-blip yexeshana kuphela?Kweli nqaku sivavanya iindaba zamva nje zentengiso kunye nedatha yemfuno yonikezelo ebumba uqikelelo lwexabiso le-lithium.
Isishwankathelo semarike yeLithium
I-Lithium ayinayo imarike yexesha elizayo njengoko iyimakethi yentsimbi encinci ngokwemilinganiselo yokuthengisa.Nangona kunjalo, indawo yentengiso ephuma kwi-CME Group inekamva le-lithium hydroxide, esebenzisa uvavanyo lwexabiso le-lithium hydroxide epapashwe yi-Fastmarkets.
Ngo-2019, i-LME ngentsebenziswano nee-Fastmarkets yaphehlelela ixabiso lereferensi elisekwe kwisalathiso sokurhweba rhoqo ngeveki kwi-CIF China, Japan kunye neKorea.
I-China, iJapan kunye neKorea zezona ntengiso zintathu zinkulu ze-lithium yaselwandle.Ixabiso lendawo ye-lithium kulawo mazwe lithathwa njengophawu loshishino lomgangatho webhetri i-lithium.
Ngokweedatha zembali, amaxabiso e-lithium awela phakathi kwe-2018 ukuya kwi-2020 ngenxa yokubonelela nge-glut njengabavukuzi, njengePilbara Minerals kunye ne-Altura Mining, ukunyuka kwemveliso.
Ixabiso le-lithium hydroxide liye laya kwi-9 yeekhilogram kwi-30 kaDisemba 2020, ukusuka kwi-$ 20.5 / kg ngomhla we-4 kaJanuwari 2018. I-Lithium carbonate ithengiswa kwi-$ 6.75 / kg kwi-30 kaDisemba 2020, ihla kwi-$ 19.25 ngomhla we-4 kaJanuwari 2018.
Amaxabiso aqale ukunyuka ekuqaleni kuka-2021 ngenxa yokukhula okuqinileyo kwe-EV njengoko uqoqosho lwehlabathi luye lwaphinda lwavela kwiziphumo zobhubhani we-Covid-19.Ixabiso le-lithium carbonate likhuphuke ngokuphindwe elinesithoba ukuya kutsho kwi-$ 6.75 / kg ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari 2021, ngelixa i-lithium hydroxide iye yanda ngaphezu kwezihlandlo ezisixhenxe ukusuka kwi-9 yeedola.
KwiIGlobal EV Outlook 2022ipapashwe ngoMeyi, i-Arhente yaMandla yaMazwe ngaMazwe (IEA)
Iintengiso ezixeliweyo zee-EVs ziphindwe kabini ngo-2021 ukusuka kunyaka ophelileyo ukuya kwirekhodi entsha yeeyunithi ezi-6.6m.Lilonke inani leemoto zombane ezindleleni kwihlabathi liphela lifikelele kwi-16.5m, liphindwe kathathu kwisixa-mali sika-2018.
Kwikota yokuqala yalo nyaka, i-2 yezigidi zeemoto ze-EV zithengisiwe, ukuya kwi-75% ngonyaka-unyaka (YOY).
Nangona kunjalo, amaxabiso e-lithium carbonate indawo kwimakethi yase-Asia-Pacific athomalalisa kwikota yesibini njengokuqhambuka okutsha kwe-Covid-19 e-China, ebangele ukuba urhulumente anyanzelise ukuvalwa, kuchaphazele ikhonkco lokubonelela ngezinto ezikrwada.
Ngokweemakethe zeekhemikhali kunye neengqondi zexabiso, iChemanalyst, ixabiso le-lithium carbonate lihlolwe kwi-$ 72,155 / tonne okanye i-$ 72.15 / kg kwikota yesibini yaphela ngoJuni 2022, phantsi kwe-$ 74,750 / tonne kwikota yokuqala yaphela ngo-Matshi.
Inkampani yabhala:
Amaziko amaninzi eZithuthi zoMbane acuthe imveliso yawo, kwaye iindawo ezininzi zayimisa imveliso yazo ngenxa yokungonelanga kwezixhobo zemoto.
"Uphuhliso lulonke ngenxa ye-COVID, kunye nophando lwabasemagunyeni baseTshayina malunga nokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-Lithium, umngeni kutshintsho oluzinzileyo olusingise kuqoqosho oluluhlaza,"
Ixabiso le-lithium hydroxide kwi-Asia-Pacific, nangona kunjalo, inyuke i-$ 73,190 / tonne kwikota yesibini, ukusuka kwi-$ 68,900 / tonne kwikota yokuqala, kusho uChemanalyst.
Imbonakalo yemfuno yobonelelo icebisa imarike engqongqo
Ngo-Matshi, urhulumente wase-Australia uqikelele ukuba imfuno yehlabathi ye-lithium inokunyuka ukuya kwi-636,000 yeetoni ze-lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) ngo-2022, ukusuka kwi-526,000 yeetoni ngo-2021. iyaqhubeka nokunyuka.
Uqikelelo lwemveliso ye-lithium yehlabathi ukuba yonyuke kancinci ngaphezulu kwemfuno ukuya kwi-650,000 yeetoni ze-LCE ngo-2022 kunye ne-1.47 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2027.
Ukonyuka kwemveliso ye-lithium, nangona kunjalo, ayinakukwazi ukubamba imfuno evela kubavelisi bebhetri.
Inkampani yophando iWood Mackenzie iqikelele ngoMatshi ukuba umthamo webhetri ye-lithium-ion eqokelelweyo yehlabathi inokunyuka ngaphezulu kokuphindwe kahlanu ukuya kwi-5,500 gigawatt-yure (GWh) ngo-2030 ukusuka kwi-2021 ukuphendula kwizicwangciso zokwandiswa kwe-EV.
Jiayue Zheng, abahlalutyi bakaWood Mackenzie, bathi:
"Imarike yemoto yombane (EV) yenza phantse i-80% yemfuno yebhetri ye-lithium-ion."
"Amaxabiso e-oyile aphezulu axhasa iimarike ezininzi ukuba zikhuphe imigaqo-nkqubo yezothutho ye-zero-emission, ebangela imfuno yebhetri ye-lithium-ion ukuba ibe phezulu kwaye idlule i-3,000 GWh ngo-2030."
“Imakethi yebhetri ye-lithium-ion sele idibene nokunqongophala kulo nyaka uphelileyo ngenxa yemfuno ekhulayo yentengiso ye-EV kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezikrwada.Ngaphantsi kwemeko yethu esisiseko, siqikelela ukuba ubonelelo ngebhetri aluzukufikelela kwimfuno kude kube ngu-2023. "
“Imakethi yebhetri ye-lithium-ion sele idibene nokunqongophala kulo nyaka uphelileyo ngenxa yemfuno ekhulayo yentengiso ye-EV kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto ezikrwada.Ngaphantsi kwemeko yethu esisiseko, siqikelela ukuba ubonelelo ngebhetri aluzukufikelela kwimfuno kude kube ngu-2023. "
"Sikholelwa ukuba oku kugxilwe kwi-lithium kubangelwa ubukhulu becala icandelo lezemigodi ye-lithium liphuhliswa kakhulu xa lithelekiswa ne-nickel," i-firm yabhala kuphando.
"Siqikelela ukuba ii-EVs ziya kuba noxanduva ngaphezulu kwe-80.0% yemfuno ye-lithium yehlabathi ngo-2030 xa kuthelekiswa ne-19.3% kuphela yobonelelo lwe-nickel yehlabathi ngo-2030."
Uqikelelo lwexabiso leLithium: Uqikelelo lwabahlalutyi
I-Fitch Solutions kuqikelelo lwexabiso le-lithium ka-2022 eliqikelelwayo kwixabiso lebhetri ye-lithium carbonate e-China ukuya kumndilili we-$21,000 ngetoni nganye kulo nyaka, ilula ukuya kumndilili we-$19,000 ngetoni nganye ngo-2023.
UNicholas Trickett, Umhlalutyi wesinyithi kunye nemigodi kwi-Fitch Solutions wabhala kwi-Capital.com, wathi:
“Sisalindele ukuthotywa kwamaxabiso ngokwemiqathango kunyaka ozayo njengoko imigodi emitsha iqala ukuveliswa ngo-2022 no-2023, amaxabiso aphezulu azinzileyo atshabalalisa imfuno ethile njengoko abathengi bexatyiswa ngokuthenga izithuthi zombane (eyona nto iqhuba ukukhula kwemfuno), kunye nabathengi abaninzi. vala izivumelwano zexesha elide nabasebenzi-mgodini.”
I-firm yayikwinkqubo yokuhlaziya ixabiso le-lithium libonisa amaxabiso aphezulu akhoyo kunye notshintsho kwimeko yezoqoqosho, u-Trickett uthe.
I-Fitch Solutions ibikezela i-lithium carbonate ye-lithium carbonate emhlabeni jikelele ukunyuka nge-219kilotonnes (kt) phakathi kwe-2022 kunye ne-2023 kunye nolunye ukwanda kwe-194.4 kt phakathi kwe-2023 kunye ne-2024, u-Trickett uthe.
Kwixabiso lentengo ye-lithium ye-2022 evela kumnikezeli wedatha yezoqoqosho Urhwebo lwezoQoqosho olulindelekileyo i-lithium carbonate e-China ukurhweba kwi-CNY482,204.55 / tonne ekupheleni kwe-Q3 2022 kunye ne-CNY502,888.80 kwiinyanga ze-12.
Ngenxa yokuguquguquka kunye nokungaqiniseki ekuboneleleni nasekufuneni, abahlalutyi banokubonelela kuphela ngeengqikelelo zexesha elifutshane.Abazange babonelele ngexabiso le-lithium ye-2025 okanye ixabiso le-lithium kwi-2030.
Xa ujonga ngaphakathilithiumuqikelelo lwexabiso, khumbula ukuba uqikelelo lwabahlalutyi lunokuba kwaye aluchanekanga.Ukuba ungathanda ukutyala imali kwi-lithium, kufuneka wenze uphando lwakho kuqala.
Isigqibo sakho sotyalo-mali kufuneka sisekelwe kwisimo sakho sengqondo somngcipheko, ubuchule bakho kule marike, ukusasazeka kwepotifoliyo yakho kunye nendlela oziva ukhululeke ngayo ngokulahlekelwa yimali.Kwaye ungaze utyale imali ngaphezu kokuba unokukwazi ukulahlekelwa.
Ixesha lokuposa: Sep-17-2022