Indlela yokubeka kunye neshishini leukugcinwa kwamandlakwinkqubo yamandla iya icaca ngakumbi.Okwangoku, indlela yophuhliso ejolise kwimarike yokugcina amandla kwimimandla ephuhlisiwe njenge-United States neYurophu isekiwe ngokusisiseko.Uhlaziyo lweenkqubo zamandla kwiimarike ezisakhulayo nalo luyakhula ngokukhawuleza.Uphuhliso olukhulu lweshishini lokugcina amandla Iimeko zivuthiwe, kwaye imboni yogcino lwamandla yehlabathi iya kuqhuma ngo-2023.
EYurophu: Izinga lokungena eliphantsi, amandla okukhula aphezulu, kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla kufikelele kwinqanaba elitsha
Ngaphantsi kwengxaki yamandla aseYurophu, ukusebenza kakuhle kwezoqoqosho kwindawo yokugcina ilanga yaseYurophu kuye kwaqatshelwa yimarike, kwaye imfuno yokugcina ilanga iqalile ukuqhuma.Indlela yesivumelwano sexabiso lombane wendawo yokuhlala.Ngo-2023, ixabiso lombane kwiikontraki ezisanda kusayinwa liya kunyuka ngokukhawuleza.Umyinge wexabiso lombane uya kuba ngaphezu kwe-40 euro / MWh, ukwanda kwe-80-120% ngonyaka.Kulindeleke ukuqhubeka nokugcina amaxabiso aphezulu kwiminyaka eyi-1-2 ezayo, kwaye imfuno eqinile yokugcina ilanga icacile.
IJamani ikhulula i-VAT ye-photovoltaic yasekhaya kunye nerhafu yengeniso, kwaye umgaqo-nkqubo wenkxaso-mali wokonga e-Itali urhoxisiwe.Umgaqo-nkqubo ovumayo uyaqhubeka.Izinga lokugcinwa kwekhaya laseJamani lembuyekezo lingafikelela kwi-18.3%.Ukuthathela ingqalelo ixesha lentlawulo yenkxaso-mali linokucuthwa libe yiminyaka esi-7-8.Umzila wamandla ozimeleyo wexesha elide, izinga lokungena kokugcinwa kwekhaya eYurophu ngo-2021 kuphela i-1.3%, kukho indawo ebanzi yokukhula, kunye neemarike zoshishino, urhwebo kunye neendawo zokugcina ezinkulu nazo zikhula ngokukhawuleza.
Siqikelela ukuba imfuno yogcino lwamandla amatsha eYurophu ngo-2023/2025 iya kuba yi-30GWh/104GWh, ukwanda kwe-113% ngo-2023, kunye ne-CAGR=93.8% ngo-2022-2025.
EUnited States: Ngokukhuthazwa ngumgaqo-nkqubo we-ITC, kwaqhambuka uqhambuko
I-United States yeyona marike inkulu yokugcina izinto emhlabeni.Kwi-2022Q1-3, umthamo ofakiweyo wokugcina amandla e-United States wawuyi-3.57GW / 10.67GWh, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-102% / 93%.
Ukusukela ngoNovemba, umthamo obhalisiweyo ufikelele kwi-22.5GW.Ngo-2022, umthamo omtsha ofakiweyo we-photovoltaics uya kuncipha, kodwa ukugcinwa kwamandla kuya kuqhubeka nokugcina ukukhula ngokukhawuleza.Kwi-2023, i-photovoltaic efakwe amandla iya kuphucula, kwaye izinga lokungena kokugcinwa kwamandla aphezulu liya kuqhubeka nokunyuka, ukuxhasa ukuqhuma okuqhubekayo kokugcinwa kwamandla okufakwayo.
Ukulungelelaniswa phakathi kwabanikezeli bamandla e-United States bahluphekile, ukugcinwa kwamandla kunexabiso elisebenzayo lokulawula, iinkonzo ezincedisayo zivulekile ngokupheleleyo, iqondo lokuthengisa liphezulu, kwaye ixabiso lombane lePPA liphezulu kwaye i-premium yokugcina iyabonakala.Ikhredithi yerhafu ye-ITC yongezwa iminyaka eyi-10 kwaye umlinganiselo wekhredithi unyuswe ukuya kwi-30% -70%.Ngethuba lokuqala, ukugcinwa kwamandla okuzimeleyo kufakwe kwi-subsidy, ekhuthaza ukunyuka okukhulu kwizinga lokubuya.
Siqikelela ukuba imfuno yogcino lwamandla amatsha e-United States ngo-2023/2025 iya kuba yi-36/111GWh ngokulandelelanayo, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-117% ngo-2023, kunye ne-CAGR = 88.5% ngo-2022-2025.
I-China: Imfuno yokugqithiswa komgaqo-nkqubo ikhula ngokukhawuleza, kwaye imarike ye-yuan eyi-100 yeebhiliyoni iqala ukuvela.
Ulwabiwo olunyanzelekileyo lwasekhaya lokugcinwa luqinisekisa ukwanda kokugcinwa kwamandla.Kwi-2022Q1-3, umthamo ofakiweyo ngu-0.93GW / 1.91GWh, kwaye umlinganiselo wesitoreji esikhulu kwisakhiwo udlula i-93%.Ngokwezibalo ezipheleleyo, ibhidi yoluntu yokugcina amandla ngo-2022 iya kufikelela kwi-41.6GWh.Imodeli yokugcina amandla ekwabelwana ngayo isasazeka ngokukhawuleza, kwaye imbuyekezo yomthamo, imarike yendawo yamandla, kunye nokwabelana ngexesha lokwahluka kwexabiso indlela ziphunyezwa ngokuthe ngcembe ukunyusa izinga lokugcinwa kwamandla embuyekezo.
Siqikelela ukuba imfuno yomthamo omtsha wogcino lwamandla asekhaya ngo-2023/2025 iya kuba yi-33/118GWh ngokulandelelanayo, ukonyuka konyaka nonyaka nge-205% ngo-2023, kunye ne-CAGR = 122.2% ngo-2022-2025.
Ubuchwephesha obutsha obufana neebhetri zesodium-ion, iibhetri zokuhamba kwamanzi, ukugcinwa kwamandla efotothermal, kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla omxhuzulane ziyaphunyezwa kwaye ziqinisekiswa ngokuthe ngcembe ekupheleni kwebhidi.Yomeleza ulawulo lokhuseleko lokugcinwa kwamandla, kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe wandise izinga lokungena kwe-high-pressure cascade, inkqubo yokupholisa ulwelo, kunye noKhuseleko lomlilo.Ukuthunyelwa kweebhetri zokugcina amandla zihluke ngokucacileyo, kwaye iinkampani ze-inverter zinenzuzo ekungeneni kwi-PCS.
Idityaniswe kunye: iimarike ezinkulu ezintathu e-China, e-United States naseYurophu ziye zaqhuma
Enkosi ngokuqhambuka kogcino olukhulu lwase-China-US kunye nogcino lwendlu yaseYurophu, siqikelela ukuba imfuno yogcino lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela iya kuba yi-120/402GWh ngo-2023/2025, ukonyuka nge-134% ngo-2023, kunye ne-CAGR ye-98.8% ngo-2022 -2025.
Kwicala lokubonelela, abangeneli abatsha kwishishini lokugcina amandla baye bavela, kwaye iziteshi ziyinkosi.Ulwakhiwo lweeseli zebhetri lugxile kakhulu.I-CATL ibeka kuqala kwihlabathi malunga nokuthunyelwa, kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-BYD EVE Pine Energy kuye kwagcina ukukhula ngokukhawuleza;i-inverters yokugcina amandla igxininise kwiitshaneli kunye neenkonzo ze-brand, kwaye ukuxinwa kwesakhiwo kuye kwanda.Ukukhanya kwelanga I-IGBT amandla okuqinisekisa ukubonelela kunamandla kwi-Imarike yokugcina indawo enkulu iqinile ekhokeleni, ii-inverters zokugcina izindlu zinandipha izinga eliphezulu lokukhula, kunye nokuthunyelwa kweenkokeli zokugcina izindlu ziye zanda amaxesha amaninzi ngokulandelelana.
Ngaphantsi kokuguqulwa okukhawulezileyo kwamandla, ukunciphisa iindleko ze-photovoltaic izikhululo zamandla zomhlaba ziya kungenisa ukuphakama kofakelo kwi-2023, eya kukhawulezisa ukuqhambuka kwesitoreji esikhulu e-China nase-United States;ukugcinwa kwendlu kuya kuqhuma eYurophu ngo-2022, kwaye kuya kuqhubeka ngokuphindwe kabini kwi-2023. Ukugcinwa kwendlu kwiindawo ezikhulayo ezifana ne-United States kunye ne-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia Kuya kuba yinto eqhelekileyo, kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla kuya kungenisa ixesha legolide lophuhliso.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-05-2023