IMpumalanga ye-Asia yayihlale iyisikhungo samandla adonsela phansi ekwakhiweni kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion, kodwa eMpumalanga ye-Asia isikhungo samandla adonsela phansi kancane kancane sashibilika sibheke eShayina ekuqaleni kwawo-2000.Namuhla, izinkampani zaseShayina zibambe izikhundla ezibalulekile ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwe-lithium emhlabeni wonke, phezulu naphansi komfula, okumelela cishe amaphesenti angama-80 okukhiqizwa kwamaseli ebhethri kusukela ngo-2021.1 Ukusabalala kwama-electronics abathengi njengamaselula namalaptops kwakhulisa ukwamukelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion ngeminyaka yawo-2000. , futhi manje ngeminyaka yawo-2020 ukushintsha emhlabeni wonke ezimotweni zikagesi (EVs) kufaka umoya kumaseyili wamabhethri e-lithium-ion.Ukuqonda izinkampani ze-lithium zaseShayina ngakho-ke kubalulekile ekuqondeni ukuthi yini enika amandla ukuhlinzwa okuzayo okuzayo kokwamukelwa kwe-EV.
Isikhungo Somandla Adonsela phansi Sishintshele eChina
Ukuphumelela kokuwina uMklomelo kaNobel kaningi kuholele ekuthengisweni kwamabhethri e-lithium, ikakhulukazi ngu-Stanley Whittingham ngeminyaka yawo-1970 kanye no-John Goodenough ngo-1980. Nakuba le mizamo ingazange ibe yimpumelelo ngokuphelele, yabeka isisekelo sempumelelo ebalulekile kaDkt. Akira Yoshino ngo-1985, okuyinto yenza amabhethri e-lithium-ion aphephe futhi akwazi ukuhweba.Ukusuka lapho kuqhubeke, iJapan yaba nomlenze phezulu emjahweni wokuqala wokuthengisa amabhethri e-lithium futhi ukukhuphuka kweSouth Korea kwenza i-East Asia yaba isikhungo semboni.
Ngo-2015, i-China yadlula kokubili i-South Korea ne-Japan ukuze ibe umthengisi ohamba phambili wamabhethri e-lithium-ion.Ngemuva kwalokhu kukhuphuka bekuyinhlanganisela yemizamo yenqubomgomo kanye nosomabhizinisi abanesibindi.Izinkampani ezimbili ezisencane uma kuqhathaniswa, i-BYD kanye ne-Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL), zaba ngabashicileli futhi manje bakha cishe u-70% womthamo webhethri e-China.2
Ngo-1999, unjiniyela ogama lakhe lingu-Robin Zeng wasiza ekutholeni i-Amperex Technology Limited (ATL), eyathuthukisa ukukhula kwayo ngo-2003 ngokuthola isivumelwano ne-Apple sokwenza amabhethri e-iPod.Ngo-2011, ukusebenza kwebhethri ye-EV ye-ATL kwaphendulelwa ku-Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL).Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, i-CATL yathatha u-34.8% wemakethe yamabhethri e-EV yomhlaba wonke.3
Ngo-1995, usokhemisi ogama lakhe lingu-Wang Chuanfu walibangisa eningizimu e-Shenzhen, ukuyosungula i-BYD.Impumelelo yokuqala ye-BYD embonini ye-lithium yavela ekukhiqizeni amabhethri omakhalekhukhwini kanye nezinto zikagesi ezithengwayo kanye nokuthenga kwe-BYD impahla engashintshi e-Beijing Jeep Corporation kwaphawula ukuqala kohambo lwayo endaweni yezimoto.Ngo-2007, inqubekelaphambili ye-BYD yadonsa iso likaBerkshire Hathaway.Ekupheleni kwengxenye yokuqala ka-2022, i-BYD yedlule i-Tesla ekuthengisweni kwe-EV yomhlaba wonke, nakuba iza ne-caveat yokuthi i-BYD ithengisa kokubili ama-EV ahlanzekile nama-hybrid, kuyilapho u-Tesla egxile kuphela kuma-EVs.4
Ukunyuka kwe-CATL kanye ne-BYD kwasizwa ukwesekwa kwenqubomgomo.Ngo-2004, amabhethri e-lithium aqala ukungena ku-ajenda yabenzi benqubomgomo baseShayina, "Nezinqubomgomo Zokuthuthukisa Imboni Yezimoto," futhi kamuva ngo-2009 no-2010 ngokwethula uxhaso lwamabhethri neziteshi zokushaja ze-EVs.5 Kuwo wonke ama-2010, uhlelo yezibonelelo ezinikezwe i-$ 10,000 kuya ku-$ 20,000 yezimoto zikagesi futhi zenziwe zitholakale kuphela ezinkampanini ezihlanganisa izimoto e-China ngamabhethri e-lithium-ion avela kubahlinzeki abagunyaziwe baseShayina. Abenzi bebhethri baseShayina ukukhetha okukhanga kakhulu.
Ukutholwa kwe-EV e-China Kuqhube Isidingo Se-lithium
Ubuholi baseChina ekutholweni kwe-EV buyingxenye yesizathu esenza isidingo somhlaba wonke samabhethri e-lithium sikhuphuka.Kusukela ngo-2021, u-13% wezimoto ezithengiswa eChina bekungama-hybrid noma ama-EV ahlanzekile futhi lelo nani kulindeleke ukuthi lenyuke.Ukukhula kwe-CATL kanye ne-BYD ibe iziqhwaga zomhlaba phakathi neminyaka engamashumi amabili ihlanganisa amandla e-EVs e-China.
Njengoba ama-EV athola ukusabalala, isidingo siyasuka kumabhethri asekelwe ku-nickel sibuyele kumabhethri asekelwe ku-iron (LFPs), awake wangathandwa ngokuba namandla aphansi uma kuqhathaniswa (okungakho ububanzi buphansi).Ngokuvumelana neChina, i-90% yokukhiqizwa kwamaseli e-LFP emhlabeni wonke izinze eChina.7 Inqubo yokushintsha isuka ku-nickel-based ukuya ku-LFP ayinzima, ngakho-ke i-China izolahlekelwa ingxenye yayo ngokwemvelo kulesi sikhala, kodwa i-China ibonakala noma kunjalo. ibekwe kahle ukugcina isikhundla esiphezulu esikhaleni se-LFP ngekusasa elibonakalayo.
Eminyakeni yamuva nje, i-BYD ibilokhu iphokophela phambili ngebhethri yayo ye-LFP Blade, ephakamisa kakhulu ibha yokuphepha kwebhethri.Ngesakhiwo sebhethri esisha esithuthukisa ukusetshenziswa kwesikhala, i-BYD iveze ukuthi Ibhethri le-Blade aliphumelelanga nje kuphela ukuhlolwa kokungena kwezinzipho, kodwa izinga lokushisa langaphezulu lahlala lipholile ngokwanele futhi. izimoto, abakhiqizi bezimoto abakhulu njengeToyota kanye noTesla nabo bahlela ukusebenzisa noma sebesebenzisa iBlade Battery, nakuba ngoTesla okunye ukungaqiniseki okusalayo ngokuthi yimalini.9,10,11
Ngaleso sikhathi, ngoJuni 2022 i-CATL yethula ibhethri layo le-Qilin.Ngokungafani ne-Battery Blade ehlose ukuguqula amazinga okuphepha, ibhethri ye-Qilin iyazihlukanisa kakhulu ekugqileni kwamandla nasezikhathini zokushaja. okugqamisa ukukhula okukhulu kobuchwepheshe ngemuva kwalawa mabhethri.13,14
Izinkampani ZaseShayina Zivikele Isikhundla Secebo Kuchungechunge Lokuhlinzeka Ngomhlaba Wonke
Nakuba umsebenzi we-CATL kanye ne-BYD esikhaleni se-EV ubalulekile, ukuba khona okukhulu kwe-China ezigabeni ezikhuphuka nomfula akumele kushaywe indiva ngempela.Isabelo sebhubesi sokukhiqizwa kwe-lithium eluhlaza senzeka e-Australia naseChile, enesabelo somhlaba wonke esingu-55% no-26%.Esenhla nomfula, iShayina yenza kuphela u-14% wokukhiqizwa kwe-lithium emhlabeni jikelele.15 Naphezu kwalokhu, izinkampani zaseShayina zenze ukuba khona komfula eminyakeni yamuva nje ngokuthenga izigxobo ezimayini emhlabeni jikelele.
Ukuthenga kwenziwa ngabakhi bamabhethri nabavukuzi ngokufanayo.Izibonelo ezimbalwa eziphawulekayo ngo-2021 zifaka phakathi ukuthengwa kwe-Zijin Mining Group ngo-$765mn kwe-Tres Quebradas kanye nokuthenga kwe-CATL okungu-$298mn kwe-Cauchari East kanye ne-Pastos Grandes, kokubili e-Argentina.16 NgoJulayi 2022, i-Ganfeng Lithium yamemezela izinhlelo zayo zokuthola u-100% we-Lithea Inc. e-Argentina ngentengo yenani elifinyelela ku-$ 962mn.17 Kalula nje, i-lithium iyisithako esiyinhloko ngemuva kwenguquko eluhlaza kanye nezinkampani zaseShayina zizimisele ukutshala imali ku-lithium ukuqinisekisa ukuthi azishiywa ngaphandle.
Isitoreji Samandla Sibonisa Okungenzeka Phakathi Nezinselele Zemvelo
Izibophezelo zaseShayina zokuthola ukungcola okuphezulu kakhulu ngo-2030 kanye nokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni ngo-2060 kuyingxenye yalokho okuqhuba isidingo sokwamukelwa kwe-EV.Esinye isithako esibalulekile empumelelweni yezinhloso ezivuselelekayo zaseShayina ukwamukelwa kobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla.Ukugcinwa kwamandla kuhambisana nemiklamo yamandla avuselelekayo futhi yingakho nje uhulumeni waseShayina manje egunyaza u-5-20% wokugcinwa kwamandla ukuze uhambe namaphrojekthi wamandla avuselelekayo.Isitoreji sibalulekile ukuze kuncishiswe ugesi ngamabomu ngenxa yokuntuleka kwesidingo noma izinkinga zokudlulisela ugesi, zibe ncane kakhulu.
Isitoreji samanzi ampompayo njengamanje siwumthombo omkhulu kakhulu wokugcinwa kwamandla nge-30.3 GW kusukela ngo-2020, nokho cishe u-89% wesitoreji esingewona amanzi ngamabhethri e-lithium-ion.18,19 Nakuba i-hydro pumped ifaneleka kakhulu ukugcina isikhathi eside, i-lithium amabhethri afaneleka kangcono isitoreji sesikhathi esifushane, okungaphezulu kwalokho okudingekayo kokuvuselelekayo.
I-China njengamanje ine-3.3GW kuphela yomthamo wokugcina amandla ebhethri kodwa inezinhlelo zokunwetshwa okukhulu.Lezi zinhlelo zichazwe ngokuningiliziwe oHlelweni Lweminyaka Eyi-14 Lweminyaka Emihlanu Lokugcinwa Kwamandla olwakhishwa ngoMashi 2022.20 Enye yezinjongo ezinkulu zalolu hlelo ukunciphisa izindleko zeyunithi ngayinye yokugcina amandla ngo-30% ngo-2025, okuzovumela ukugcinwa. ukuze ibe yisinqumo esifiselekayo ngokwezomnotho.21 Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngaphansi kwalolu hlelo, i-State Grid inethemba lokwengeza i-100GW endaweni yokugcina ibhethri ngo-2030 ukuze isekele ukukhula kwezinto ezivuselelekayo, okuzokwenza umkhumbi waseShayina ogcina amabhethri ube mkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni, nakuba ngaphambi nje kwalokho. i-US okulindeleke ukuthi ibe ne-99GW.22
Isiphetho
Izinkampani zaseShayina sezivele ziguqule i-lithium supply chain yomhlaba wonke, kodwa ziyaqhubeka nokusungula izinto ezintsha ngesivinini esisheshayo.Njengobufakazi bokubaluleka kwazo embonini, kusukela ngo-Agasti 18, 2022, izinkampani zaseShayina zenze ama-41.2% eSolactive Lithium Index, okuyinkomba eklanyelwe ukulandelela ukusebenza kwezinkampani ezinkulu neziningi ezisebenza ngoketshezi ezisebenza ekuhloleni nasekuhloleni. /noma ukumbiwa kwe-lithium noma ukukhiqizwa kwamabhethri e-lithium.23 Emhlabeni jikelele, amanani e-lithium anyuke ngokuphindwe ka-13 phakathi kukaJulayi 1, 2020 noJulayi 1, 2022, afinyelela ku-$67,050 ngethani.24 E-China, intengo ye-lithium carbonate ngethani yeqa kusukela ku-105000 RMB kuya ku-475500 RMB phakathi kuka-Aug 20, 2021 kanye no-Aug 19, 2022, okuphawula ukunyuka kwama-357%.25 Njengoba amanani e-lithium carbonate ekhuphuka noma eduze nokuphakama komlando, izinkampani zaseShayina zisesimweni sokuzuza ngokwemvelo.
Lo mkhuba ezintengo ze-lithium usize kokubili amasheya aseShayina nase-US ahlobene namabhethri kanye ne-lithium yedlula izinkomba zemakethe ebanzi eziguquguqukayo phakathi kwezimo zemakethe ezimbi;phakathi kuka-Aug 18, 2021 no-Aug 18, 2022, i-MSCI China All Shares IMI Select Batteries Index ibuyise u-1.60% uma iqhathaniswa no-22.28% we-MSCI China All Shares Index. njengoba i-MSCI China All Shares IMI Select Batteries Index ibuyise u-1.60% uma iqhathaniswa ne-Solactive Global Lithium Index ukuthumela imbuyiselo engu--0.74% esikhathini esifanayo.27
Sikholelwa ukuthi izintengo ze-lithium zizohlala ziphakeme eminyakeni ezayo, zisebenza njengesivunguvungu esingaba khona kubakhi bamabhethri.Nokho, ngibheke phambili,ukuthuthukiswa kubuchwepheshe bebhethri ye-lithium kungenza ama-EV athengeke kakhulu futhi asebenze kahle, okungase kukhuphule isidingo se-lithium.Njengoba kunikezwe ithonya laseChina ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwe-lithium, silindele ukuthi izinkampani zaseChina cishe zizodlala indima ebalulekile embonini ye-lithium eminyakeni ezayo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Nov-05-2022