Isibikezelo senani le-lithium: Ingabe intengo izogcina inkunzi yayo isebenza?
Izintengo ze-lithium zebhethri zehle emasontweni edlule naphezu kokushoda okuqhubekayo nokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi okuqinile emhlabeni jikelele.
Izintengo zamasonto onke ze-lithium hydroxide (ubuncane bezinga lebhethri le-56.5% LiOH2O) zilinganiselwa ku-$75,000 ithani ngalinye ($75 ikhilogremu) izindleko, umshwalense kanye nempahla (CIF) isisekelo somhla ziyisi-7 kuJulayi, zehle zisuka ku-$81,500 zingama-7 Meyi, ngokusho kweLondon Metal. I-Exchange (LME) kanye ne-ejensi yokubika amanani e-Fastmarkets.
Izintengo ze-lithium carbonate e-China zehle zaba ku-CNY475,500/tonne ($70,905.61) ngasekupheleni kukaJuni, zisuka kwirekhodi eliphezulu elingu-CNY500,000 ngoMashi, ngokusho komhlinzeki wedatha yezomnotho I-Trading Economics.
Kodwa-ke, amanani entengo ye-lithium carbonate ne-lithium hydroxide - izinto zokusetshenziswa zokwenza amabhethri emoto kagesi (EV) - asaphindwe kabili kusukela kumanani ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari.
Ingabe i-downtrend iyi-blip yesikhashana kuphela?Kulesi sihloko sihlola izindaba zakamuva zemakethe kanye nedatha yesidingo sokuhlinzeka ebumba izibikezelo zentengo ye-lithium.
Uhlolojikelele lwemakethe ye-Lithium
I-Lithium ayinayo imakethe yekusasa njengoba iyimakethe yensimbi encane uma kuqhathaniswa nenani lokuhweba.Kodwa-ke, indawo yemakethe okuphuma kuyo i-CME Group inekusasa le-lithium hydroxide, esebenzisa ukuhlolwa kwentengo ye-lithium hydroxide eshicilelwe yi-Fastmarkets.
Ngo-2019, i-LME ngokubambisana ne-Fastmarkets yethula inani lereferensi elisuselwe kunkomba yokuhweba yendawo yamasonto onke ngokwesisekelo se-CIF China, Japan kanye ne-Korea.
I-China, Japan kanye neKorea izimakethe ezintathu ezinkulu ze-lithium ehamba olwandle.Intengo yendawo ye-lithium kulawo mazwe ithathwa njengebhentshimakhi yemboni ye-lithium yebanga lebhethri.
Ngokusho kwedatha yomlando, amanani e-lithium ehle phakathi kuka-2018 kuya ku-2020 ngenxa yokuhlinzeka nge-glut njengabavukuzi, njengePilbara Minerals kanye ne-Altura Mining, ukwanda kokukhiqizwa.
Intengo ye-lithium hydroxide yehle yaya ku-$9 ikhilogremu ngomhla ka-30 December 2020, isuka ku-$20.5/kg ngomhla ka-4 January 2018. I-Lithium carbonate ihwebe ngo-$6.75/kg ngo-30 December 2020, yehle isuka ku-$19.25 ngomhla ka-4 January 2018.
Amanani aqale ukukhuphuka ekuqaleni kuka-2021 ngenxa yokukhula okuqinile kwe-EV njengoba umnotho womhlaba wonke ukhuphuka emiphumeleni yobhubhane lwe-Covid-19.Intengo ye-lithium carbonate ikhuphuke ngokuphindwe kasishiyagalolunye kuze kube manje isuka ku-$6.75/kg ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari 2021, kanti i-lithium hydroxide inyuke ngokuphindwe kasikhombisa isuka ku-$9.
KweI-Global EV Outlook 2022ishicilelwe ngoMeyi, i-International Energy Agency (IEA)
ukuthengiswa okubikiwe kwama-EV kuphindeke kabili ngo-2021 kusukela onyakeni odlule kwafinyelela kurekhodi elisha lamayunithi angu-6.6m.Isamba sezimoto zikagesi emigwaqeni emhlabeni wonke sifinyelele ku-16.5m, siphindwe kathathu kunani lango-2018.
Ngekota yokuqala yalo nyaka, kudayiswe izimoto ze-EV eziyizigidi ezimbili, okukhuphuke ngo-75% unyaka nonyaka (YOY).
Kodwa-ke, amanani entengo e-lithium carbonate emakethe yase-Asia-Pacific ehle ngekota yesibili njengoba ukuqubuka okusha kwe-Covid-19 eChina, okubangele ukuthi uhulumeni abeke imithetho yokuvalwa, kuthinte uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla eluhlaza.
Ngokusho kobuhlakani bemakethe yamakhemikhali namanani entengo, iChemanalyst, intengo ye-lithium carbonate ihlolwe ku-$72,155/tonne noma i-$72.15/kg engxenyeni yesibili ephele ngoJuni 2022, yehle isuka ku-$74,750/tonne ngekota yokuqala ephele ngoMashi.
Inkampani yabhala:
Izinsiza eziningi zezimoto zikagesi zinciphise ukuphuma kwazo, futhi iziza eziningi zamisa ukukhiqizwa kwazo ngenxa yokushoda kwezingxenye zezimoto ezibalulekile.
"Intuthuko isiyonke ngenxa ye-COVID, kanye nophenyo lweziphathimandla zaseChina mayelana nokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo ye-Lithium, inselele uguquko oluzinzile oluya emnothweni oluhlaza,"
Intengo ye-lithium hydroxide e-Asia-Pacific, nokho, ikhuphuke i-$ 73,190 / tonne engxenyeni yesibili, isuka ku-$ 68,900 / tonne engxenyeni yokuqala, kusho uChemanalyst.
Umbono wesidingo sokuhlinzekwa uphakamisa imakethe eqinile
NgoMashi, uhulumeni wase-Australia wabikezela ukuthi isidingo somhlaba wonke se-lithium singakhuphukela kumathani angama-636,000 e-lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) ngo-2022, sisuka kumathani angama-526,000 ngo-2021. iyaqhubeka ikhuphuka.
Ilinganisele ukuthi ukuphuma kwe-lithium emhlabeni wonke kuzokhuphuka kancane ngaphezu kwesidingo kuya kumathani angama-650,000 e-LCE ngo-2022 kanye namathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.47 ngo-2027.
Ukwenyuka kokuphuma kwe-lithium, nokho, kungase kungakwazi ukufinyelelisa isidingo sabakhiqizi bebhethri.
Inkampani yocwaningo iWood Mackenzie yabikezela ngoMashi ukuthi umthamo webhethri le-lithium-ion oqongelelekayo emhlabeni wonke ungase ukhuphuke ngokuphindwe kahlanu kuye ku-5,500 gigawatt-awa (GWh) ngo-2030 kusukela ngo-2021 ukuphendula ezinhlelweni ezinkulu zokunwetshwa kwe-EV.
Jiayue Zheng, abahlaziyi bakaWood Mackenzie, bathe:
"Imakethe yezimoto zikagesi (EV) yenza cishe u-80% wesidingo sebhethri le-lithium-ion."
"Amanani aphezulu kawoyela asekela izimakethe eziningi ukuthi zikhiphe izinqubomgomo zezokuthutha ezikhipha i-zero-emission, okwenza isidingo sebhethri ye-lithium-ion sikhuphuke futhi sidlule ku-3,000 GWh ngo-2030."
“Imakethe yebhethri ye-lithium-ion isivele ihlangabezane nokushoda ngonyaka odlule ngenxa yesidingo esikhulayo semakethe ye-EV kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanani ezinto ezingavuthiwe.Ngaphansi kwesimo sethu esiyisisekelo, siveza ukuthi ukunikezwa kwebhethri ngeke kuhlangabezane nesidingo kuze kube ngu-2023. "
“Imakethe yebhethri ye-lithium-ion isivele ihlangabezane nokushoda ngonyaka odlule ngenxa yesidingo esikhulayo semakethe ye-EV kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanani ezinto ezingavuthiwe.Ngaphansi kwesimo sethu esiyisisekelo, siveza ukuthi ukunikezwa kwebhethri ngeke kuhlangabezane nesidingo kuze kube ngu-2023. "
"Sikholelwa ukuthi lokhu kugxilwa kwe-lithium kubangelwa kakhulu umkhakha wezimayini we-lithium ongathuthukisiwe uma uqhathaniswa ne-nickel," inkampani ibhale ocwaningweni.
"Silinganisela ukuthi ama-EV azoba nesibopho sesidingo esingaphezu kuka-80.0% se-lithium emhlabeni ngo-2030 uma kuqhathaniswa no-19.3% kuphela wokunikezwa kwe-nickel emhlabeni wonke ngo-2030."
Isibikezelo senani le-lithium: Izibikezelo zabahlaziyi
IFitch Solutions esibikezelweni sayo sentengo ye-lithium sika-2022 ilinganisela inani lentengo ye-lithium carbonate esezingeni lebhethri e-China ukuze libe phakathi kwama- $21,000 ngethani kulo nyaka, lehle lifinyelele ku- $19,000 ngethani ngo-2023.
Nicholas Trickett, umhlaziyi wensimbi nezimayini kwa-Fitch Solutions ubhalele i-Capital.com, wathi:
“Sisalindele ukwehliswa kwamanani entengo ngokwesilinganiso ngonyaka ozayo njengoba izimayini ezintsha ziqala ukukhiqizwa ngo-2022 no-2023, amanani entengo aqhubekayo acekela phansi isidingo esithile njengoba abathengi behlelwa yintengo yokuthenga izimoto zikagesi (okuyisisusa esiyinhloko sokukhula kwesidingo), kanye nabathengi abaningi. vala izivumelwano zesikhathi eside zabasebenzi basezimayini.”
Le nkampani ibisezinhlelweni zokubuyekeza isibikezelo sentengo ye-lithium uma kubhekwa amanani aphezulu amanje kanye nezinguquko esimweni sezomnotho, kusho uTrickett.
I-Fitch Solutions ibikezela ukuthi ukuhlinzekwa kwe-lithium carbonate emhlabeni wonke kuzokwenyuka ngo-219kilotonnes (kt) phakathi kuka-2022 no-2023 kanye nokunye ukunyuka ngo-194.4 kt phakathi kuka-2023 no-2024, kusho u-Trickett.
Esibikezelweni senani le-lithium sango-2022 esivela kumhlinzeki wedatha yezomnotho ye-Trading Economics kulindeleke ukuthi i-lithium carbonate e-China ihwebe ngo-CNY482,204.55/tonne ekupheleni kwe-Q3 2022 kanye ne-CNY502,888.80 ezinyangeni eziyi-12.
Ngenxa yokuguquguquka nokungaqiniseki kokunikezwayo nesidingo, abahlaziyi banganikeza kuphela izibikezelo zesikhathi esifushane.Abazange banikeze isibikezelo sentengo ye-lithium sika-2025 noma isibikezelo sentengo ye-lithium sango-2030.
Lapho ubhekai-lithiumizibikezelo zamanani, khumbula ukuthi izibikezelo zabahlaziyi zingaba futhi azilungile.Uma ungathanda ukutshala imali ku-lithium, kufanele wenze ucwaningo lwakho kuqala.
Isinqumo sakho sokutshalwa kwezimali kufanele sisekelwe esimweni sakho sengqondo sokubeka engcupheni, ubuchwepheshe bakho kule makethe, ukusabalala kwephothifoliyo yakho nokuthi uzizwa ukhululeke kangakanani ngokulahlekelwa imali.Futhi ungalokothi utshale imali engaphezu kwalokho ongakwazi ukukukhokhela.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-17-2022