Isikhundla kanye nemodeli yebhizinisi yeukugcinwa kwamandlaohlelweni lwamandla kuya ngokuya kucaca.Njengamanje, indlela yokuthuthukisa egxile emakethe yokugcina amandla ezifundeni ezithuthukile njenge-United States ne-Europe isisunguliwe.Ukuguqulwa kwezinhlelo zamandla ezimakethe ezisafufusa nakho kuyakhula ngesivinini.Intuthuko enkulu yemboni yokugcina amandla Izimo sezivuthiwe, futhi imboni yomhlaba wonke yokugcina amandla izoqhuma ngo-2023.
I-Europe: Izinga lokungena eliphansi, amandla okukhula aphezulu, nokugcinwa kwamandla sekufinyelele izinga elisha
Ngaphansi kwenkinga yamandla aseYurophu, ukusebenza kahle okuphezulu kwezomnotho kwesitoreji selanga sasekhaya saseYurophu kuye kwaqashelwa yimakethe, futhi isidingo sokugcinwa kwelanga sesiqalile ukuqhuma.Indlela yenkontileka yentengo kagesi wendawo yokuhlala.Ngo-2023, intengo kagesi yezinkontileka ezisanda kusayinwa izokhuphuka kakhulu.Isilinganiso sentengo kagesi sizoba ngaphezu kwama-euro angu-40/MWh, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-80-120% unyaka nonyaka.Kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke nokugcina amanani aphezulu eminyakeni engu-1-2 ezayo, futhi isidingo esiqinile sokugcinwa kwelanga sicacile.
I-Germany ikhulula i-VAT ye-photovoltaic yasendlini kanye nentela engenayo, futhi inqubomgomo yoxhaso lwezokonga lwasendlini yase-Italy ihoxisiwe.Inqubomgomo evumayo iyaqhubeka.Izinga lokonga lomndeni waseJalimane lembuyiselo lingafinyelela ku-18.3%.Uma kucatshangelwa isikhathi sokukhokha somxhaso singafinyezwa sibe iminyaka engu-7-8.Umkhuba wamandla ozimele wesikhathi eside, izinga lokungena kwesitoreji sasendlini eYurophu ngo-2021 liyi-1.3% kuphela, kunendawo ebanzi yokukhula, kanye nezimakethe zezimboni, ezentengiselwano nezinkulu zokugcina impahla nazo zikhula ngokushesha.
Silinganisela ukuthi isidingo somthamo omusha wokugcina amandla e-Europe ngo-2023/2025 sizoba ngu-30GWh/104GWh, ukukhuphuka ngo-113% ngo-2023, kanye ne-CAGR=93.8% ngo-2022-2025.
E-United States: Ngokukhuthazwa yinqubomgomo ye-ITC, kwaqubuka ukuqubuka kwezifo
I-United States iyimakethe yesitoreji esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni.Ngo-2022Q1-3, umthamo ofakiwe wokugcina amandla e-United States wawungu-3.57GW/10.67GWh, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-102%/93%.
Kusukela ngoNovemba, umthamo obhalisiwe usufinyelele ku-22.5GW.Ngo-2022, umthamo omusha ofakiwe we-photovoltaics uzokwehla, kodwa isitoreji samandla sisazogcina ukukhula okusheshayo.Ngo-2023, umthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaic uzothuthuka, futhi izinga lokungena kwesitoreji samandla esiphezulu lizoqhubeka nokukhula, lisekela ukuqhuma okuqhubekayo komthamo ofakiwe wokugcina amandla.
Ukuxhumana phakathi kwabahlinzeki bamandla e-United States kubi, isitoreji samandla sinenani elisebenzayo lokulawula, izinsiza ezihambisanayo zivulwe ngokugcwele, izinga lokumaketha liphezulu, futhi intengo kagesi ye-PPA iphezulu futhi inkokhelo yokugcina iyabonakala.Ikhredithi yentela ye-ITC yelulelwa iminyaka eyi-10 futhi isilinganiso sesikweletu sikhuphukele ku-30% -70%.Ngokokuqala ngqa, isitoreji samandla esizimele sifakiwe kumxhaso, okukhuthaza ukwanda okukhulu kwezinga lokubuyisela.
Silinganisela ukuthi isidingo somthamo omusha wokugcina amandla e-United States ngo-2023/2025 sizoba ngu-36/111GWh ngokulandelanayo, ukukhuphuka konyaka nonyaka ngo-117% ngo-2023, kanye ne-CAGR=88.5% ngo-2022-2025.
I-China: Isidingo sokukhuluphala ngokweqile kwenqubomgomo sikhula ngokushesha, futhi imakethe yama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-100 isiqala ukuvela
Isabelo esiyisibopho sasekhaya sokugcina siqinisekisa ukwanda kokugcinwa kwamandla.Ngo-2022Q1-3, umthamo ofakiwe ngu-0.93GW/1.91GWh, futhi ingxenye yesitoreji esikhulu esakhiweni idlula ama-93%.Ngokwezibalo eziphelele, ukubhida komphakathi kokugcinwa kwamandla ngo-2022 kuzofinyelela ku-41.6GWh.Imodeli yokulondoloza amandla okwabelwana ngayo isakazeka ngokushesha, futhi isinxephezelo somthamo, imakethe yendawo yamandla, kanye nendlela yomehluko wamanani okwabelana ngesikhathi kuqaliswa kancane kancane ukuze kukhushulwe izinga lembuyiselo yokugcina amandla.
Silinganisela ukuthi isidingo somthamo omusha wasekhaya wokugcina amandla ngo-2023/2025 sizoba ngu-33/118GWh ngokulandelana, ukukhuphuka konyaka nonyaka ngo-205% ngo-2023, kanye ne-CAGR=122.2% ngo-2022-2025.
Ubuchwepheshe obusha obufana namabhethri e-sodium-ion, amabhethri okugeleza koketshezi, isitoreji samandla e-photothermal, kanye nesitoreji samandla adonsela phansi kuyasetshenziswa futhi kuqinisekiswa kancane kancane ekupheleni kwebhidi.Qinisa ukuphathwa kokuphepha kwesitoreji samandla, futhi kancane kancane ukhuphule izinga lokungena kwe-high-pressure cascade, isistimu yokupholisa uketshezi, kanye nokuvikelwa komlilo we-Pack.Ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri okugcina amandla kuhlukaniswa ngokucacile, futhi izinkampani ze-inverter zinenzuzo yokungena kwi-PCS.
Kuhlanganiswe: izimakethe ezintathu ezinkulu e-China, e-United States nase-Europe ziqhume
Ngenxa yokuqubuka kwesitoreji esikhulu sase-China-US kanye nesitoreji sasendlini sase-Europe, sibikezela ukuthi isidingo sokugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke sizoba ngu-120/402GWh ngo-2023/2025, ukwanda ngo-134% ngo-2023, kanye ne-CAGR yama-98.8% ngo-2022. -2025.
Ngasohlangothini lokunikezela, abasanda kungena embonini yokugcina amandla sebevele, futhi iziteshi ziyinkosi.Isakhiwo samaseli ebhethri sigxile kakhulu.I-CATL ihamba phambili emhlabeni mayelana nokuthunyelwa, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwe-BYD EVE Pine Energy kuye kwagcina ukukhula okusheshayo;ama-inverters okugcina amandla agxila eziteshini nasezinsizeni zomkhiqizo, futhi ukugxila kwesakhiwo kuye kwanda.Ikhono le-Sunshine I-IGBT lokuqinisekisa ukunikezwa kunamandla Imakethe yesitoreji esikhulu iqinile ekuholeni, ama-inverters esitoreji sasendlini ajabulela izinga eliphezulu lokukhula, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwabaholi besitoreji sasekhaya kuye kwanda izikhathi eziningana zilandelana.
Ngaphansi koshintsho olusheshayo lwamandla, ukuncishiswa kwezindleko zeziteshi zamandla ze-photovoltaic emhlabathini kuzoletha inani eliphakeme lokufakwa ku-2023, okuzosheshisa ukuqubuka kwesitoreji esikhulu e-China nase-United States;isitoreji sasendlini sizoqhuma e-Europe ngo-2022, futhi sizoqhubeka siphindwe kabili ngo-2023. Isitoreji sasekhaya ezindaweni ezisafufusa njenge-United States ne-Southeast Asia Kuzophinde kube umkhuba ovamile, futhi ukugcinwa kwamandla kuzongenisa isikhathi esihle sokuthuthuka.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-05-2023